Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
84.2%
|
1.51 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.5%
|
1.62 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
1.48 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.09 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.20 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Dundalk
Waterford
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Dundalk
23 matches
Waterford
28 matches
| Dundalk | Statistic | Waterford |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wins | 7 |
| 8 | Draws | 8 |
| 5 | Losses | 13 |
| 40 | Goals For | 38 |
| 32 | Goals Against | 52 |
| 1.74 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.36 |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.86 |
| 16 | BTTS Yes | 17 |
| 20 | Over 1.5 | 23 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 12 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 5.62 | Shots On Goal | 3.43 |
| 15.52 | Total Shots | 11.76 |
| 5.95 | Corners | 4.71 |
| 48% | Ball Possession | 38.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Dundalk's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Dundalk arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 32 points compared to Waterford in 10 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Waterford. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Waterford in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control.
Operating from 4 place with 32 points from 20 games, Dundalk bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 32:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Horgan (6 goals), G. Arubi (6 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (6 assists), G. Arubi (3 assists), E. Kenny (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 14 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, while the 25:40 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Lonergan (8 goals), Pádraig Amond (7 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (3 assists), C. Noonan (3 assists), Dean McMenamy (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 4 times, Waterford won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from Dundalk's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Dundalk
Bohemians
Dundalk
Galway United
Dundalk
Derry City
Dundalk
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
Bohemians
Dundalk
Waterford
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
Galway United
Dundalk
Derry City
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Dundalk
Bohemians
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
Waterford
Dundalk
Galway United
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
Drogheda United
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Drogheda United
Waterford
Shelbourne
Waterford
Drogheda United
Waterford
Derry City
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
Dundalk
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
Galway United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
Galway United
Waterford
Dundalk
Waterford
Bohemians
Waterford
Derry City
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Derry City
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Dundalk
Galway United
Dundalk
Derry City
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
Waterford
Dundalk
Drogheda United
Waterford
Drogheda United
Waterford
Shelbourne
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Waterford
Galway United
Waterford
Dundalk
Waterford
Derry City
Waterford
Drogheda United
Waterford
Wexford
Waterford
Cork City
Waterford
Cobh Ramblers
Waterford
Bray Wanderers
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 35:20 | 15 | 44 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35:17 | 18 | 38 |
W
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 3 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 36:27 | 9 | 37 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 4 |
Dundalk
Home
|
21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34:29 | 5 | 35 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
| 5 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 31:32 | -1 | 30 |
L
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 6 | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 28:27 | 1 | 26 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 7 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 28:31 | -3 | 24 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 27:36 | -9 | 22 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15:33 | -18 | 19 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 |
Waterford
Away
|
21 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 25:42 | -17 | 14 |
L
W
D
L
W
|