IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
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Oriel Park

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.2%
Odds 1.51
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.2%
1.51
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.48
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.09
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 84.2%
Draw 6.4%
Waterford Win 9.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.79
Waterford1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
40 GF / 32 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
38 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
16
BTTS Yes
17
14
Over 2.5
15
5.62
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 23 matches
Waterford Waterford 28 matches
Dundalk Statistic Waterford
10 Wins 7
8 Draws 8
5 Losses 13
40 Goals For 38
32 Goals Against 52
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
16 BTTS Yes 17
20 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 9
5.62 Shots On Goal 3.43
15.52 Total Shots 11.76
5.95 Corners 4.71
48% Ball Possession 38.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Dundalk's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Dundalk arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 32 points compared to Waterford in 10 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Waterford. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Waterford in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control.

Dundalk Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 32 points from 20 games, Dundalk bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 32:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Horgan (6 goals), G. Arubi (6 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (6 assists), G. Arubi (3 assists), E. Kenny (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 14 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, while the 25:40 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Lonergan (8 goals), Pádraig Amond (7 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (3 assists), C. Noonan (3 assists), Dean McMenamy (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 4 times, Waterford won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from Dundalk's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Waterford 5-3-2
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 4, draws 4, Waterford wins 7
Last matches: Dundalk
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
23.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
Last matches: Waterford
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
H2H: Dundalk vs Waterford
04.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
13.03.26
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
13.09.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
L
28.06.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
2
L
10.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
4
1
L
15.03.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
0
D
16.09.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
L
29.01.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
L
29.10.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
W
03.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
1
D
11.06.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
3
L
30.04.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
0
3
W
25.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
0
L
14.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
2
2
D
11.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
W
Last matches: Dundalk
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
20.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
H2H at home: Dundalk
13.03.26
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
28.06.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
2
L
15.03.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
0
D
29.10.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
W
11.06.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
3
L
14.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
2
2
D
11.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
W
Last matches: Waterford
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Wexford
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cork City
0
1
L
10.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cobh Ramblers
3
1
W
06.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bray Wanderers
2
1
W
H2H away: Waterford
13.03.26
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
L
28.06.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
2
W
15.03.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
0
D
29.10.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
L
11.06.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
3
W
14.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
2
2
D
11.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.45
Draw 4.66
Home 1.51
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.61
Draw 2.68
Home 1.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.48
Over 2.75 1.60
Over 3.0 1.78
Over 3.25 2.05
Over 3.5 2.29
Over 3.75 2.66
Over 4.5 3.96
Under 1.5 5.43
Under 2.5 2.61
Under 2.75 2.33
Under 3.0 2.04
Under 3.25 1.79
Under 3.5 1.62
Under 3.75 1.47
Under 4.5 1.24
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 4.20
Home 1.48
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.62
Home 1.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.88
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.50
Over 3.5 2.20
Over 4.5 3.75
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 5.50
Under 2.5 2.50
Under 3.5 1.62
Under 4.5 1.25
Under 5.5 1.10
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.51
Draw 4.55
Home 1.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.28
Draw 2.51
Home 1.97
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.03
Draw 2.99
Home 1.78
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 1.75 1.14
Over 2.0 1.17
Over 2.25 1.31
Over 2.5 1.46
Over 2.75 1.58
Over 3.0 1.74
Over 3.25 2.01
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 3.75 2.52
Over 4.0 3.05
Over 4.25 3.28
Over 4.5 3.54
Over 4.75 4.39
Over 5.0 5.80
Over 5.25 6.05
Over 5.5 6.40
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Over 8.5 50.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.0 11.00
Under 1.5 4.85
Under 1.75 4.44
Under 2.0 4.00
Under 2.25 2.93
Under 2.5 2.39
Under 2.75 2.19
Under 3.0 1.94
Under 3.25 1.77
Under 3.5 1.62
Under 3.75 1.44
Under 4.0 1.31
Under 4.25 1.25
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 4.75 1.14
Under 5.0 1.07
Under 5.25 1.06
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 4.40
Home 1.49
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 2.55
Home 1.90
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.70
Draw 3.00
Home 1.82
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.0 1.20
Over 2.5 1.49
Over 3.0 1.79
Over 3.5 2.28
Over 4.0 3.30
Over 4.25 3.60
Over 4.5 3.90
Over 5.5 6.75
Under 1.5 4.75
Under 2.0 3.95
Under 2.5 2.40
Under 3.0 1.89
Under 3.5 1.54
Under 4.0 1.28
Under 4.25 1.23
Under 4.5 1.20
Under 5.5 1.05

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 13 5 5 35:20 15 44
D W L W W
2 21 11 5 5 35:17 18 38
W W L D L
3 23 10 7 6 36:27 9 37
W L L W L
4 21 9 8 4 34:29 5 35
W W W D W
5 22 7 9 6 31:32 -1 30
L D W D D
6 23 5 11 7 28:27 1 26
D L W L D
7 20 6 6 8 28:31 -3 24
W L D L W
8 21 5 7 9 27:36 -9 22
D L D D L
9 21 5 4 12 15:33 -18 19
L L L W L
10 21 2 8 11 25:42 -17 14
L W D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1