IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Oriel Park
Referee: P. Norton
Dundalk
Match Timeline
Shelbourne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
D. Kelly · Assist: K. McInroy
Shelbourne
🟨
20'
Daryl Horgan
Dundalk
🟨
20'
Paddy Barrett
Shelbourne
🟨
42'
Jonathan Lunney
Shelbourne
🟨
45'
Sean Gannon
Shelbourne
🔄
46'
E. Kenny ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
🔄
46'
K. Buckley ↔ B. Burns
Dundalk
🔄
46'
H. Warren ↔ R. Cornwall
Dundalk
🟨
51'
Bobby Burns
Dundalk
52'
K. McInroy
Shelbourne
🟨
55'
Harry Wood
Shelbourne
🔄
69'
H. Wood ↔ A. Coote
Shelbourne
🔄
73'
R. Teahan ↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
🔄
81'
J. Henry-Francis ↔ E. Caffrey
Shelbourne
🔄
81'
S. Boyd ↔ R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
87'
Daniel Kelly
Shelbourne
89'
D. Horgan
Dundalk
🟨
90+7'
Declan McDaid
Dundalk
🟨
90+1'
Tyreke Wilson
Dundalk
🔄
90+5'
D. Kelly ↔ E. Chapman
Shelbourne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 84.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
84.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 58.7%
Draw 4%
Shelbourne Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.75
Shelbourne1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
28 GF / 21 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
30 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
10
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
12
6.62
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 15 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 16 matches
Dundalk Statistic Shelbourne
6 Wins 6
6 Draws 5
3 Losses 5
28 Goals For 30
21 Goals Against 25
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
10 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
6.62 Shots On Goal 4.17
16.77 Total Shots 13.5
6.54 Corners 5.33
50.2% Ball Possession 56.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Dundalk's more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Shelbourne arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shelbourne. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Shelbourne in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Dundalk Analysis

Dundalk come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 21 points after 13 matches. The return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 22:18, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Declan McDaid (3 goals), E. Kenny (3 goals), G. Arubi (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), G. Arubi (2 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 13 points from 12 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 19:21, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through H. Wood (5 goals), J. Martin (5 goals), Daniel Kelly (2 goals), with creative support from M. Lundgren (3 assists), H. Wood (2 assists), J. Martin (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 3 times, Shelbourne won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:15 from Dundalk's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Shelbourne 4-3-3
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 3, draws 5, Shelbourne wins 6
Stats
Dundalk Dundalk
Shelbourne Shelbourne
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 3
66% Ball Possession 34%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 4
6 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 7
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
509 Total passes 270
378 Passes accurate 147
1.72 expected_goals 1.80
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Dundalk
Formation
Shelbourne
E. Minogue
E. Minogue
J. Wilson
J. Wilson
H. Warren
H. Warren
M. Animasahun
M. Animasahun
T. Wilson
T. Wilson
A. Dervin
A. Dervin
K. Buckley
K. Buckley
E. Kenny
E. Kenny
R. Teahan
R. Teahan
D. Horgan
D. Horgan
G. Arubi
G. Arubi
W. Speel
W. Speel
S. Bone
S. Bone
P. Barrett
P. Barrett
K. Ledwidge
K. Ledwidge
S. Gannon
S. Gannon
J. Henry-Francis
J. Henry-Francis
J. Lunney
J. Lunney
K. McInroy
🎯
K. McInroy
D. Kelly
D. Kelly
H. Wood
H. Wood
S. Boyd
S. Boyd
Dundalk 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
E. Minogue
G
31
J. Wilson
D
5
H. Warren
↓ 46'
D
4
M. Animasahun
D
22
T. Wilson
🟨 90+1'
D
6
A. Dervin
M
18
K. Buckley
↓ 46'
M
16
E. Kenny
↓ 46'
M
11
R. Teahan
↓ 73'
M
7
D. Horgan
⚽ 89' 🟨 20'
M
9
G. Arubi
F
Substitutes
13
P. Cherrie
G
27
D. McDaid
↑ 46' 🟨 90+7'
M
3
B. Burns
↑ 46' 🟨 51'
D
12
L. Mulligan
D
17
S. Tracey
M
24
R. Cornwall
↑ 46'
D
8
H. Groome
↑ 73'
M
10
L. Gaxha
F
19
S. Spaight
D
Shelbourne 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
W. Speel
G
15
S. Bone
D
29
P. Barrett
🟨 20'
D
4
K. Ledwidge
D
2
S. Gannon
🟨 45'
M
21
J. Henry-Francis
↓ 81'
M
6
J. Lunney
🟨 42'
M
23
K. McInroy
⚽ 52' 🎯 11'
M
17
D. Kelly
⚽ 11' ↓ 90+5' 🟨 87'
M
7
H. Wood
↓ 69' 🟨 55'
F
9
S. Boyd
↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
31
C. Walsh
G
14
A. Coote
↑ 69'
M
10
J. Martin
F
27
E. Caffrey
↑ 81'
M
28
M. Lundgren
M
55
J. Roche
D
5
E. Chapman
↑ 90+5'
M
20
R. Freitas
↑ 81'
F
36
W. Jarvis
F
Last matches: Dundalk
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
23.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
Last matches: Shelbourne
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
27.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
1
W
20.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
H2H: Dundalk vs Shelbourne
01.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
03.04.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
W
20.01.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
L
01.02.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
30.08.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
1
L
07.06.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
L
03.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
L
06.10.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
L
06.08.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
1
D
21.04.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
1
D
06.03.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
W
02.09.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
24.06.22
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
22.04.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
W
Last matches: Dundalk
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
20.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
H2H at home: Dundalk
01.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
30.08.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
1
L
03.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
06.08.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
1
D
06.03.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
W
02.09.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.04.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
W
Last matches: Shelbourne
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
1
W
06.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bray Wanderers
3
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
18.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Celje
0
0
D
27.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
AZ Alkmaar
0
2
L
23.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Shkendija
0
1
L
28.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
2
0
W
06.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
2
1
W
30.07.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Qarabag
0
1
L
16.07.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
1
1
D
H2H away: Shelbourne
01.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
W
30.08.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
1
W
03.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
06.08.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
1
D
06.03.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
L
02.09.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.04.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 13 5 5 35:20 15 44
D W L W W
2 21 11 5 5 35:17 18 38
W W L D L
3 23 10 7 6 36:27 9 37
W L L W L
4 21 9 8 4 34:29 5 35
W W W D W
5 22 7 9 6 31:32 -1 30
L D W D D
6 23 5 11 7 28:27 1 26
D L W L D
7 20 6 6 8 28:31 -3 24
W L D L W
8 21 5 7 9 27:36 -9 22
D L D D L
9 21 5 4 12 15:33 -18 19
L L L W L
10 21 2 8 11 25:42 -17 14
L W D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1