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Dover vs Chelmsford City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43.6%
Odds 3.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.50
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43.6%
3.25 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.50 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.20 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Dover Win 43.6%
Draw 14.8%
Chelmsford City Win 41.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dover1.33
Chelmsford City1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dover Dover
D W D W W
9 GF / 5 GA
Chelmsford City Chelmsford City
D L W W D
10 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
12
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
4
3.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dover Dover 21 matches
Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 16 matches
Dover Statistic Chelmsford City
11 Wins 6
6 Draws 9
4 Losses 1
35 Goals For 24
30 Goals Against 13
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
12 BTTS Yes 8
16 Over 1.5 10
11 Over 2.5 4
7 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 3
3.5 Shots On Goal 0
6 Total Shots 0
1 Corners 0
16.5% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chelmsford City. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Chelmsford City having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Dover Analysis

Dover are currently 11 in the standings with 19 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 19:18 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Chelmsford City Analysis

Chelmsford City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 15 points from 11 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 9 draws, and 0 defeats with a 17:11 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)

Standings

National League N/S: South
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 8 2 3 23:14 9 26
D W W L L
2 11 7 4 0 26:6 20 25
W D W W W
3 12 7 3 2 21:11 10 24
W W D W L
4 13 7 2 4 12:9 3 23
W L D W L
5 12 6 4 2 21:9 12 22
D W W W D
6 11 6 3 2 25:14 11 21
W W W D
7 13 6 3 4 24:14 10 21
D W W L D
8 12 5 5 2 26:18 8 20
W D W D D
9 12 6 2 4 23:16 7 20
W L D W W
10 13 5 4 4 20:14 6 19
W W D L L
11
Dover Home
12 5 4 3 19:18 1 19
D D W W W
12 12 5 3 4 20:17 3 18
L D L W
13 13 4 6 3 15:15 0 18
W D W L D
14 12 4 5 3 19:16 3 17
D W L D W
15 11 2 9 0 17:11 6 15
D W D D D
16 13 3 5 5 11:14 -3 14
L L D W D
17 12 4 2 6 10:19 -9 14
L W L D L
18 13 3 4 6 13:18 -5 13
L L L W D
19 13 4 1 8 12:24 -12 13
W L L L L
20 12 3 1 8 16:26 -10 10
L L L W L
21 12 3 1 8 18:33 -15 10
L L L L L
22 12 2 2 8 14:30 -16 8
L L L D W
23 12 2 2 8 10:28 -18 8
L W W D D
24 13 1 1 11 13:34 -21 4
L L L D L
Promotion - National League
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation