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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
22.05.2026 18:45
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Derry City
Match Timeline
St Patrick's Athl.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Cameron Dummigan
Derry City
🟨
33'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🟨
38'
Jamie Lennon
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
60'
J. Brown ↔ B. Baggley
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
60'
Z. Elbouzedi ↔ A. Breslin
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
62'
J. McClean ↔ H. Rylah
Derry City
🔄
72'
C. Forrester ↔ R. Palmer
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
73'
C. Dummigan ↔ D. Markey
Derry City
🟨
75'
Kévin Santos
Derry City
🟨
77'
Jamie Stott
Derry City
🟨
79'
Barry Cotter
Derry City
🔄
81'
R. Edmondson ↔ A. Keena
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
82'
J. Clarke ↔ J. Thomas
Derry City
🟨
90+7'
Darragh Markey
Derry City
🟨
90+7'
Henry Rylah
Derry City
🟨
90+6'
Josh Thomas
Derry City
🟨
90+7'
Joe Redmond
St Patrick's Athl.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 37.2%
Draw 14.6%
St Patrick's Athl. Win 48.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.05
St Patrick's Athl.1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
22 GF / 24 GA
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WLDWL
35 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.84
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
12
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
9
4.65
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 19 matches
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 19 matches
Derry City Statistic St Patrick's Athl.
4 Wins 10
8 Draws 5
7 Losses 4
22 Goals For 35
24 Goals Against 17
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.84
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
12 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
4.65 Shots On Goal 5.59
13.12 Total Shots 16.82
6.06 Corners 5.41
54.2% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Derry City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derry City expected to line up in 4-3-3 and St Patrick's Athl. in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St Patrick's Athl. having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring St Patrick's Athl.. St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 31 points while Derry City sit 6 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Derry City Analysis

Derry City sit 6 with 20 points after 17 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 21:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), Brandon Fleming (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

Placed 2 with 31 points from 17 outings, St Patrick's Athl. continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 31:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Edmondson (8 goals), K. Leavy (4 goals), A. Keena (3 goals), with creative support from K. Leavy (3 assists), Z. Elbouzedi (3 assists), J. Lennon (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 7 times, St Patrick's Athl. won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Derry City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-3-3 / St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-3
H2H summary: Derry City wins 7, draws 5, St Patrick's Athl. wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 19 8 6 54:33 21 65
W W W L D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 33 17 8 8 58:40 18 59
L W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation