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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
10.10.2026 14:00
Pride Park

Derby vs Wrexham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 10.6%
Draw 12.9%
Wrexham Win 76.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.12
Wrexham1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby Derby
WWDLW
15 GF / 22 GA
Wrexham Wrexham
WLDWL
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
8
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
4
3.63
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derby Derby 14 matches
Wrexham Wrexham 10 matches
Derby Statistic Wrexham
3 Wins 3
3 Draws 5
8 Losses 2
15 Goals For 10
22 Goals Against 12
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
8 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 3
3.63 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.25 Total Shots 10.88
6.38 Corners 4.75
49.4% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Wrexham. Wrexham carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 14 with 10 points while Derby sit 22 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derby expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Wrexham in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wrexham having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Derby have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Derby Analysis

With 5 points from 8 games and a place of 22, Derby still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 7:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through B. Clark (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), C. Morris (1 goals), with creative support from B. Clark (1 assists), S. Szmodics (1 assists), C. Morris (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wrexham Analysis

Wrexham approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 10 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 9:12 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Moore (2 goals), Daniel Edward Peter Imray (1 goals), C. Doyle (1 goals), with creative support from Daniel Edward Peter Imray (1 assists), B. Whiteman (1 assists), L. O'Brien (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 0 times, Wrexham won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Derby's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Wrexham 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Derby wins 0, draws 1, Wrexham wins 1

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22
Derby Home
8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One