Derby vs Wrexham Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
76.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Derby
Wrexham
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Derby
14 matches
Wrexham
10 matches
| Derby | Statistic | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 3 | Draws | 5 |
| 8 | Losses | 2 |
| 15 | Goals For | 10 |
| 22 | Goals Against | 12 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Scored | 1 |
| 1.57 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.2 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 5 |
| 12 | Over 1.5 | 7 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 4 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 1 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 3.63 | Shots On Goal | 3.5 |
| 12.25 | Total Shots | 10.88 |
| 6.38 | Corners | 4.75 |
| 49.4% | Ball Possession | 48.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Wrexham. Wrexham carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 14 with 10 points while Derby sit 22 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derby expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Wrexham in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wrexham having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Derby have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
With 5 points from 8 games and a place of 22, Derby still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 7:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through B. Clark (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), C. Morris (1 goals), with creative support from B. Clark (1 assists), S. Szmodics (1 assists), C. Morris (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Wrexham approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 10 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 9:12 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Moore (2 goals), Daniel Edward Peter Imray (1 goals), C. Doyle (1 goals), with creative support from Daniel Edward Peter Imray (1 assists), B. Whiteman (1 assists), L. O'Brien (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 0 times, Wrexham won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Derby's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 7 | 17 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 11 | 15 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16:12 | 4 | 15 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:10 | 5 | 14 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 14 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 3 | 13 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 13 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 13 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:10 | -3 | 12 |
L
D
D
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:11 | 1 | 11 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 11 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 11 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 9 | 10 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 14 |
Wrexham
Away
|
8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
D
W
|
| 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 10 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 9 |
D
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 9 |
L
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
D
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 22 |
Derby
Home
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 5 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
| 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 4 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 24 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 4 |
D
L
D
L
D
|