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26.07.2026 22:30
Estadio Guillermo Laza
Referee: Hernan Mastrangelo, Argentina
Deportivo Riestra
Match Timeline
Boca Juniors
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
B. Sanchez · Assist: A. Alonso
Deportivo Riestra
⚽
23'
A. Alonso · Assist: C. Quintana
Deportivo Riestra
⚽
38'
A. Diaz · Assist: C. Paz
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
46'
W. H. Alarcon Cepeda ↔ Angel Romero
Boca Juniors
🔄
46'
A. Velasco ↔ S. Villa
Boca Juniors
🔄
61'
A. Alonso ↔ J. Goitia
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
61'
A. Diaz ↔ N. Benegas
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
66'
L. Flores ↔ Miguel Merentiel
Boca Juniors
🔄
66'
K. Zenon ↔ T. Aranda
Boca Juniors
🟨
67'
Milton Celiz
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
69'
B. Sanchez ↔ T. Gonzalez
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
75'
Yonatan Goitia
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
75'
M. Delgado ↔ C. Rey Domenech
Boca Juniors
🔄
86'
P. Monje ↔ I. Gariglio
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
86'
F. Mino ↔ N. Watson
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
90+1'
Nicolas Watson
Deportivo Riestra

Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Riestra Win 27.7%
Draw 4.3%
Boca Juniors Win 68%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Riestra0.49
Boca Juniors1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra
WWDLW
7 GF / 13 GA
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WLDWL
37 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.39
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.72
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
4
BTTS Yes
11
0
Over 2.5
9
3.25
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 18 matches
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 28 matches
Deportivo Riestra Statistic Boca Juniors
2 Wins 14
9 Draws 8
7 Losses 6
7 Goals For 37
13 Goals Against 18
0.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.72 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
4 BTTS Yes 11
7 Over 1.5 18
0 Over 2.5 9
0 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 14
12 Failed To Score 6
3.25 Shots On Goal 4.78
9.69 Total Shots 13.39
4.31 Corners 5.22
38.6% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Boca Juniors's more proactive style and Deportivo Riestra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Riestra expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Boca Juniors in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boca Juniors having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Riestra have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Boca Juniors carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Deportivo Riestra sit 15 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Boca Juniors.

Deportivo Riestra Analysis

With 11 points from 16 games and a place of 15, Deportivo Riestra still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats with a 5:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Alonso (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 30 points after 16 outings. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 22:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Miguel Merentiel (5 goals), M. Gimenez (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), with creative support from L. Paredes (3 assists), E. Zeballos (3 assists), Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Riestra won 1 times, Boca Juniors won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Deportivo Riestra's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2 / Boca Juniors 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Riestra wins 1, draws 1, Boca Juniors wins 1

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D W L W L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L D W L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L D L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L D D
Knockout Phase