URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: H. Heras
Deportivo Maldonado
Match Timeline
Danubio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
1'
Christian Tabó
Deportivo Maldonado
6'
S. Ramirez
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
25'
Iván Rossi
Danubio
30'
C. Tabo
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
40'
Maximiliano González
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
52'
Maximiliano Noble
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
58'
S. Fernandez ↔ M. Ferreira
Danubio
🔄
58'
S. Rodriguez ↔ E. Cabrera
Danubio
🔄
68'
M. Gonzalez ↔ S. Gonzalez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
68'
C. Tabo ↔ E. de Leon
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
71'
Facundo Tealde
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
79'
G. Lopez ↔ G. Larrazabal
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
79'
J. M. Ginzo ↔ H. Petryk
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
79'
L. Sosa ↔ J. Pereyra
Danubio
81'
G. Larrazabal
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
86'
Matías Espíndola
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
86'
M. Espindola ↔ A. Vila
Deportivo Maldonado
87'
M. Ferreira
Danubio
🟥
89'
Emiliano Velázquez
Danubio
🟨
90+3'
Facundo Tealde
Deportivo Maldonado
🟥
90+3'
Facundo Tealde
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
90+1'
Joaquin Pereyra
Danubio

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 10.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 28.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
10.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
28.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 75.4%
Draw 10.5%
Danubio Win 14.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.52
Danubio1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
24 GF / 16 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
17 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
9
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 15 matches
Danubio Danubio 15 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Danubio
9 Wins 4
2 Draws 6
4 Losses 5
24 Goals For 17
16 Goals Against 21
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
9 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Danubio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 29 points compared to Danubio in 11 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Danubio in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Danubio having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Danubio. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 29 points after 15 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a 24:16 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. M. Noble Sequeira (6 goals), Christian Tabó (4 goals), R. Cesar (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Danubio Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Danubio have collected 18 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 17:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), Mateo Peralta (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 times, Danubio won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-3 / Danubio 4-5-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 2, draws 5, Danubio wins 3

Lineups

Deportivo Maldonado
Formation
Danubio
A. Freitas
A. Freitas
J. M. Ginzo
J. M. Ginzo
H. Menosse
H. Menosse
F. Tealde
F. Tealde
J. Ramos
J. Ramos
M. Gonzalez
M. Gonzalez
S. Ramirez
S. Ramirez
C. Tabo
C. Tabo
A. M. Noble Sequeira
A. M. Noble Sequeira
M. Espindola
M. Espindola
G. Lopez
G. Lopez
M. Goicoechea
M. Goicoechea
F. Balatti
F. Balatti
E. Velazquez
E. Velazquez
T. Cavanagh
T. Cavanagh
L. Sosa
L. Sosa
C. Mayada
C. Mayada
I. Rossi
I. Rossi
S. Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
M. Peralta
M. Peralta
S. Fernandez
S. Fernandez
N. Azambuja
N. Azambuja
Deportivo Maldonado 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
A. Freitas
G
4
J. M. Ginzo
↓ 79'
D
3
H. Menosse
D
19
F. Tealde
🟨 71' 🟨 90+3' 🟥 90+3'
D
22
J. Ramos
D
8
M. Gonzalez
↓ 68' 🟨 40'
M
17
S. Ramirez
⚽ 6'
M
14
C. Tabo
⚽ 30' ↓ 68' 🟨 1'
F
10
A. M. Noble Sequeira
21
M. Espindola
↓ 86' 🟨 86'
M
11
G. Lopez
↓ 79'
M
Substitutes
12
V. F. Ortiz Ferreira
20
S. Tormo
D
15
S. Gonzalez
↑ 68'
M
33
N. Fuica
D
5
L. Nunez
M
42
J. Fernandez
D
7
G. Larrazabal
⚽ 81' ↑ 79'
23
A. Vila
↑ 86'
M
32
H. Petryk
↑ 79'
D
9
E. de Leon
↑ 68'
F
Danubio 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
M. Goicoechea
G
40
F. Balatti
D
2
E. Velazquez
🟥 89'
D
31
T. Cavanagh
D
6
L. Sosa
↓ 79'
D
18
C. Mayada
M
16
I. Rossi
🟨 25'
M
8
S. Rodriguez
↓ 58'
M
10
M. Peralta
M
30
S. Fernandez
↓ 58'
F
21
N. Azambuja
F
Substitutes
32
K. Martinez
G
33
D. Garcia
3
J. Pereyra
↑ 79' 🟨 90+1'
D
5
J. Millan
M
22
A. Montana
M
28
E. Femia
M
20
M. Ferreira
⚽ 87' ↑ 58'
F
17
A. Velazquez
M
14
B. Pereira
7
E. Cabrera
↑ 58'
F
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
4
2
W
Last matches: Danubio
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
H2H: Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio
18.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
19.04.26
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
02.12.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
03.06.24
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
06.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
L
25.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
4
0
L
07.08.22
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
15.02.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
L
23.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
2
2
D
06.10.20
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
0
0
D
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
H2H at home: Deportivo Maldonado
18.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
02.12.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
06.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
L
15.02.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
L
06.10.20
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
0
0
D
Last matches: Danubio
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
17.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
0
2
L
19.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
06.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
L
18.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
H2H away: Danubio
18.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
L
02.12.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
L
06.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
W
15.02.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
W
06.10.20
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
0
0
D