WORLD CONMEBOL LIBERTADORES
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: W. Sampaio
Deportes Tolima
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
A. Rodriguez · Assist: E. Pata
Independiente del Valle
🔄
19'
B. Rovira ↔ L. Sanchez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
31'
J. Hernandez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
34'
L. Sanchez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
46'
K. Florez ↔ E. Lopez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
47'
R. Schunke
Independiente del Valle
🟨
52'
M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
E. Pata ↔ J. Angulo
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
J. Sornoza ↔ R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
🔄
72'
J. Hurtado ↔ J. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
83'
H. Quintana ↔ J. Mendez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
83'
A. Parra Osorio ↔ S. Aguayo
Deportes Tolima
🔄
90'
A. Rodriguez ↔ A. Velasco
Independiente del Valle
🔄
90'
C. Gonzalez ↔ D. Reasco
Independiente del Valle

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.51
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.05
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.61
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.8%
2.51
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.05
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.61
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.9%
1.25
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 33.8%
Draw 3.4%
Independiente del Valle Win 62.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.19
Independiente del Valle1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
49 GF / 35 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
73 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
2.28
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
20
4.68
Shots on Goal
6.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 37 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 32 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Independiente del Valle
17 Wins 25
9 Draws 2
11 Losses 5
49 Goals For 73
35 Goals Against 32
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 2.28
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 20
8 Over 3.5 14
15 Clean Sheets 13
11 Failed To Score 4
4.68 Shots On Goal 6.03
12.43 Total Shots 17.26
4.7 Corners 6.06
56.4% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while Deportes Tolima sit 2 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportes Tolima expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Deportes Tolima arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 8 points after 6 matches. With 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 7:6, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Jersson González (2 goals), Luis Sandoval (2 goals), B. Rovira (1 goals), with creative support from Jersson González (1 assists), Luis Sandoval (1 assists), B. Rovira (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 13 points from 6 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 11:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on Carlos Gonzalez (6 goals), Junior Sornoza (2 goals), D. Reasco (1 goals), with creative support from L. Loor (2 assists), Junior Sornoza (1 assists), J. Alcivar (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 1 times, Independiente del Valle won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 1, draws 1, Independiente del Valle wins 0
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
22.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
08.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
04.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
2
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
22.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
3
2
W
15.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
3
2
W
08.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
02.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
22.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
20.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
6
1
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
23.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
H2H: Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
05.05.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
1
0
W
14.04.22
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
22.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
08.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
04.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
2
D
01.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
4
1
W
28.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
3
1
W
19.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
2
0
W
12.03.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
O'Higgins
2
0
W
02.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
0
W
27.02.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Tachira FC
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Llaneros
0
1
L
H2H at home: Deportes Tolima
05.05.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
1
0
W
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
22.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
3
2
W
08.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
0
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
2
0
W
H2H away: Independiente del Valle
05.05.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.51
Draw 3.06
Home 3.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.36
Draw 2.05
Home 3.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.51
Over 1.75 1.66
Over 2.0 1.93
Over 2.25 2.27
Over 2.5 2.61
Over 2.75 2.82
Over 3.5 4.94
Under 0.5 6.92
Under 1.5 2.61
Under 1.75 2.27
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.66
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.45
Draw 3.20
Home 2.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 1.95
Home 3.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.25
Home 3.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.40
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.49
Draw 3.12
Home 3.12
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.12
Draw 1.91
Home 3.84
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.22
Home 3.44
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.07
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.26
Over 1.5 1.42
Over 1.75 1.55
Over 2.0 1.75
Over 2.25 2.13
Over 2.5 2.45
Over 2.75 2.76
Over 3.0 3.60
Over 3.25 3.94
Over 3.5 4.30
Over 3.75 5.39
Over 4.0 7.70
Over 4.25 7.50
Over 4.5 8.40
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.40
Under 0.75 5.85
Under 1.0 5.25
Under 1.25 3.21
Under 1.5 2.51
Under 1.75 2.25
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.75
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.37
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.15
Under 3.75 1.09
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.43
Draw 3.00
Home 3.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 1.90
Home 3.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.30
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.46
Over 1.75 1.58
Over 2.0 1.82
Over 2.25 2.15
Over 2.5 2.48
Over 2.75 2.95
Over 3.0 4.00
Over 3.25 4.10
Over 3.5 4.90
Over 4.5 10.50
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 1.5 2.65
Under 1.75 2.33
Under 2.0 1.97
Under 2.25 1.68
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 2.75 1.38
Under 3.0 1.24
Under 3.25 1.21
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 4.5 1.03

Standings

Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 3 1 2 8:6 2 10
L W W L W
2 6 2 2 2 7:6 1 8
D L W W L
3 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W D L L W
4 6 1 3 2 5:6 -1 6
D D L W L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals