URUGUAY › PRIMERA DIVISIóN

10.10.2026 14:00

Defensor Sporting

Cerro

Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Away or Draw

Probability 62%

Odds -

BTTS

Yes

Probability 71.2%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 58.6%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Away or Draw	62%	-	▥
BTTS	Yes	71.2%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.6%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Under 7.5 Corners	92%	-	▥
HT / FT	Draw / Away	-	-	▥
Correct Score	1-2	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Defensor Sporting Win 38%

Draw 18.4%

Cerro Win 43.6%

Expected Goals (xG)

Defensor Sporting1.11

Cerro0.92

Recent Form (Last 5)

Defensor Sporting

WWDLW

28 GF / 38 GA

Cerro

WLDWL

23 GF / 45 GA

Key Stats

0.88

Average Goals Scored

0.74

1.19

Average Goals Conceded

1.45

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

1.5

Shots on Goal

1.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting 32 matches

Cerro 31 matches

Defensor Sporting	Statistic	Cerro
8	Wins	9
11	Draws	6
13	Losses	16
28	Goals For	23
38	Goals Against	45
0.88	Avg Goals Scored	0.74
1.19	Avg Goals Conceded	1.45
17	BTTS Yes	13
21	Over 1.5	19
10	Over 2.5	12
4	Over 3.5	6
8	Clean Sheets	7
10	Failed To Score	12
1.5	Shots On Goal	1.67
2.25	Total Shots	4
2.25	Corners	1.67
14.8%	Ball Possession	20%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensor Sporting expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Cerro in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

So far, Defensor Sporting have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 35 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 26:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro are currently 13 in the standings with 33 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 23:43 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away or Draw

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)

Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 3-4-3 / Cerro 4-3-3

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Penarol	31	19	6	6	50:25	25	62	W D W W W
2	Deportivo Maldonado	31	17	7	7	49:27	22	58	W W W L W
3	Atletico Torque	30	16	6	8	52:35	17	54	D L W W W
4	Racing Montevideo	31	14	11	6	36:25	11	53	L L D W L
5	Wanderers	31	14	8	9	40:36	4	50	W W D D L
6	Liverpool Montevideo	31	13	10	8	42:30	12	49	W W D L W
7	Club Nacional	30	15	4	11	45:38	7	49	W W D D W
8	Central Espanol	31	10	8	13	32:42	-10	38	L L L D D
9	Albion FC	31	10	7	14	41:42	-1	37	W L L L L
10	Juventud	31	9	10	12	35:39	-4	37	D D W D D
11	Defensor Sporting Home	31	8	11	12	28:36	-8	35	L W L W D
12	Cerro Largo	31	8	9	14	29:36	-7	33	L L L D L
13	Cerro Away	31	9	6	16	23:45	-22	33	L D L W W
14	Boston River	31	8	7	16	29:42	-13	31	D L L L L
15	Danubio	31	5	14	12	26:40	-14	29	W L D D L
16	Progreso	31	8	4	19	27:46	-19	28	L W W L W

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)

Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)