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03.10.2026 17:45
Estadio Norberto Tomaghello
Referee: Luis Lobo Medina, Argentina
Defensa Y Justicia
Match Timeline
San Lorenzo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
Jeremías Lucco · Assist: Maximiliano Porcel
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
24'
Fernando Roman ↔ Demian Leonel Dominguez
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
35'
Alexis·Cuello
San Lorenzo
⚽
45'
Héctor David Martínez · Assist: David Barbona
Defensa Y Justicia
⚽
45+3'
David Barbona · Assist: Maximiliano Porcel
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
45'
Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini ↔ Facundo Gulli
San Lorenzo
🔄
45'
Alexis·Cuello ↔ Matías Reali
San Lorenzo
🔄
53'
Nicolás Tripichio ↔ Gustavo Del Prete
San Lorenzo
🟨
59'
Héctor David Martínez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
65'
Juan Manuel Gutiérrez ↔ Tiziano Perrotta
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
65'
David Barbona ↔ Domingo Blanco
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
66'
Mathías de Ritis ↔ Teo Rodríguez Pagano
San Lorenzo
🟨
68'
Gustavo Del Prete
San Lorenzo
🟨
68'
Damián Fernández
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
73'
Guzman corujo ↔ Juan Álvarez
San Lorenzo
🟨
78'
Juan Álvarez
San Lorenzo
🔄
84'
Maximiliano Porcel ↔ Julian Lopez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
84'
Leandro Fernández ↔ Agustin Hausch
Defensa Y Justicia

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.17
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.54
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.1%
2.17 ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.54 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.2%
1.13 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
8.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Defensa Y Justicia Win 75.1%
Draw 5.6%
San Lorenzo Win 19.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensa Y Justicia1.06
San Lorenzo1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia
WWDLW
35 GF / 37 GA
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WLDWL
25 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
17
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
4
4.35
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 29 matches
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 29 matches
Defensa Y Justicia Statistic San Lorenzo
11 Wins 9
10 Draws 11
8 Losses 9
35 Goals For 25
37 Goals Against 24
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
17 BTTS Yes 9
22 Over 1.5 13
13 Over 2.5 4
6 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 14
7 Failed To Score 11
4.35 Shots On Goal 3.59
11.5 Total Shots 10.44
4.27 Corners 3.63
51.9% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward San Lorenzo. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensa Y Justicia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and San Lorenzo in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Lorenzo having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Defensa Y Justicia Analysis

Defensa Y Justicia are currently 10 in the standings with 19 points from 16 matches. The record of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 18:21 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through David Barbona (3 goals), Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (2 goals), Ayrton Portillo (2 goals), with creative support from Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (3 assists), César Pérez (3 assists), David Barbona (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

San Lorenzo Analysis

So far, San Lorenzo have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 22 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:14 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Rodrigo Auzmendi (4 goals), Alexis Cuello (2 goals), Ezequiel Herrera (1 goals), with creative support from Matias Reali (1 assists), Facundo Gulli (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Defensa Y Justicia won 7 times, San Lorenzo won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:16 from Defensa Y Justicia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Defensa Y Justicia 4-3-3 / San Lorenzo 5-4-1
H2H summary: Defensa Y Justicia wins 7, draws 3, San Lorenzo wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L W L D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W W W D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L D W L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L W W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W W W L W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W D W L W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L D L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D L L D
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L D D
Knockout Phase