URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Jardines Del Hipódromo
Referee: A. M. Matonte Cabrera
Danubio
Match Timeline
Deportivo Maldonado
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
S. Fernandez
Danubio
🟨
32'
Maximiliano González
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
48'
Camilo Mayada
Danubio
51'
C. Tabo
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
55'
L. Sosa ↔ M. Jourdan
Danubio
🔄
55'
S. Fernandez ↔ N. Azambuja
Danubio
🔄
59'
S. Rodriguez ↔ E. Cabrera
Danubio
🟨
61'
Santiago Ramírez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
67'
J. Fernandez ↔ N. Fuica
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
67'
S. Ramirez ↔ F. Tealde
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
71'
I. Rossi ↔ J. Millan
Danubio
🔄
71'
M. Ferreira ↔ E. Femia
Danubio
🔄
71'
M. Gonzalez ↔ S. Gonzalez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
80'
M. Espindola ↔ G. Lopez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
80'
C. Tabo ↔ A. Vila
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
90+2'
Hernan Menosse
Deportivo Maldonado

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 53.3%
Draw 5.8%
Deportivo Maldonado Win 40.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio1.2
Deportivo Maldonado1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WLDWL
19 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
6
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 11 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 11 matches
Danubio Statistic Deportivo Maldonado
3 Wins 7
5 Draws 1
3 Losses 3
14 Goals For 19
15 Goals Against 12
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
6 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Danubio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Maldonado. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Deportivo Maldonado in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Maldonado having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Maldonado carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while Danubio sit 10 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio sit 10 with 14 points after 11 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Cabrera (3 goals), S. Fernandez (3 goals), M. Ferreira (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 22 points after 11 matches. With 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 19:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. M. Noble Sequeira (6 goals), Christian Tabó (2 goals), M. Espindola (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 3 times, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:12 from Danubio's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 4-4-2 / Deportivo Maldonado 4-5-1
H2H summary: Danubio wins 3, draws 5, Deportivo Maldonado wins 2

Lineups

Danubio
Formation
Deportivo Maldonado
M. Goicoechea
M. Goicoechea
C. Mayada
C. Mayada
M. Rinaldi
M. Rinaldi
E. Velazquez
E. Velazquez
T. Cavanagh
T. Cavanagh
M. Ferreira
M. Ferreira
I. Rossi
I. Rossi
S. Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
L. Sosa
L. Sosa
S. Fernandez
S. Fernandez
M. Peralta
M. Peralta
D. Segovia
D. Segovia
J. M. Ginzo
J. M. Ginzo
J. Fernandez
J. Fernandez
H. Menosse
H. Menosse
S. Tormo
S. Tormo
M. Gonzalez
M. Gonzalez
C. Tabo
C. Tabo
M. Espindola
M. Espindola
A. M. Noble Sequeira
A. M. Noble Sequeira
S. Ramirez
S. Ramirez
R. Cesar
R. Cesar
Danubio 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
M. Goicoechea
G
18
C. Mayada
🟨 48'
M
4
M. Rinaldi
D
2
E. Velazquez
D
31
T. Cavanagh
D
20
M. Ferreira
↓ 71'
F
16
I. Rossi
↓ 71'
M
8
S. Rodriguez
↓ 59'
M
6
L. Sosa
↓ 55'
D
30
S. Fernandez
⚽ 14' ↓ 55'
F
10
M. Peralta
M
Substitutes
32
K. Martinez
G
3
J. Pereyra
D
29
M. Jourdan
↑ 55'
D
5
J. Millan
↑ 71'
M
28
E. Femia
↑ 71'
M
26
A. Montana
M
17
A. Velazquez
M
7
E. Cabrera
↑ 59'
F
21
N. Azambuja
↑ 55'
F
19
B. Azambuja
F
Deportivo Maldonado 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
25
D. Segovia
G
4
J. M. Ginzo
D
42
J. Fernandez
↓ 67'
D
3
H. Menosse
🟨 90+2'
D
20
S. Tormo
D
8
M. Gonzalez
↓ 71' 🟨 32'
M
14
C. Tabo
⚽ 51' ↓ 80'
M
21
M. Espindola
↓ 80'
M
10
A. M. Noble Sequeira
17
S. Ramirez
↓ 67' 🟨 61'
M
16
R. Cesar
F
Substitutes
1
A. Freitas
G
33
N. Fuica
↑ 67'
D
15
S. Gonzalez
↑ 71'
M
5
L. Nunez
M
19
F. Tealde
↑ 67'
D
11
G. Lopez
↑ 80'
M
22
J. Ramos
D
23
A. Vila
↑ 80'
M
32
H. Petryk
D
9
E. de Leon
F
Last matches: Danubio
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
4
2
W
H2H: Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado
18.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
L
19.04.26
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
02.12.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
L
03.06.24
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
06.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
W
25.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
4
0
W
07.08.22
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
15.02.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
2
W
23.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
2
2
D
06.10.20
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
0
0
D
Last matches: Danubio
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Danubio
CA River Plate
0
1
L
12.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
W
31.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Miramar
2
3
L
10.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
2
1
W
H2H at home: Danubio
19.04.26
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
03.06.24
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
25.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
4
0
W
07.08.22
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
23.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
2
2
D
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
4
2
W
H2H away: Deportivo Maldonado
19.04.26
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
03.06.24
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
25.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
4
0
L
07.08.22
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
23.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
2
2
D