CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio La Portada
Referee: P. Maza

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 81.7%
Odds 1.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
81.7%
1.18
BTTS Yes
75%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.72
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72%
1.16
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
D. La Serena Win 54.3%
Draw 27.3%
Cobresal Win 18.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
D. La Serena1.59
Cobresal1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WWDLW
37 GF / 44 GA
Cobresal Cobresal
WLDWL
29 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.85
15
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
13
4.05
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

D. La Serena D. La Serena 26 matches
Cobresal Cobresal 26 matches
D. La Serena Statistic Cobresal
7 Wins 5
9 Draws 4
10 Losses 17
37 Goals For 29
44 Goals Against 48
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.85
15 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 11
4.05 Shots On Goal 4.47
11 Total Shots 14.16
4.05 Corners 4.89
46.9% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cobresal. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with D. La Serena expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cobresal in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cobresal having the stronger overall control. Cobresal arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

D. La Serena Analysis

D. La Serena sit 10 with 23 points after 19 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 28:31 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jeisson Vargas (4 goals), Felipe Chamorro (3 goals), Diego Rubio (2 goals), with creative support from Jeisson Vargas (4 assists), Bruno Gutiérrez (2 assists), Felipe Chamorro (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cobresal Analysis

With 17 points from 18 games and a place of 15, Cobresal still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 26:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Steffan Pino (5 goals), Julián Brea (4 goals), Agustin Nadruz (2 goals), with creative support from Bryan Carvallo (3 assists), César Yanis (2 assists), Guillermo Pacheco (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, D. La Serena won 5 times, Cobresal won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:20 from D. La Serena's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (81.7%)
Predicted formations: D. La Serena 4-2-3-1 / Cobresal 4-4-2
H2H summary: D. La Serena wins 5, draws 3, Cobresal wins 6
Last matches: D. La Serena
14.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
2
0
W
08.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
1
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
3
3
D
12.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
2
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
4
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
26.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Huachipato
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
11.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Union La Calera
3
0
W
Last matches: Cobresal
16.08.26
Pri
Cobresal
Concepción
0
2
L
08.08.26
Pri
Cobresal
U. Catolica
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Cobresal
Union La Calera
4
0
W
25.07.26
Pri
Cobresal
Huachipato
3
3
D
12.07.26
Cop
Cobresal
Antofagasta
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
Cobresal
Cobreloa
2
2
D
01.07.26
Cop
Cobresal
D. La Serena
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Cobresal
Antofagasta
0
1
L
24.06.26
Cop
Cobresal
D. La Serena
0
0
D
20.06.26
Cop
Cobresal
Cobreloa
0
2
L
13.06.26
Pri
Cobresal
Colo Colo
0
3
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cobresal
Nublense
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
Cobresal
A. Italiano
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Cobresal
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
Everton de Vina
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
O'Higgins
2
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
Coquimbo Unido
2
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Cobresal
Deportes Limache
2
5
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cobresal
Palestino
2
4
L
H2H: D. La Serena vs Cobresal
01.07.26
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
0
1
W
24.06.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
27.02.26
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
0
1
W
24.01.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
26.07.25
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
2
L
11.05.25
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
1
D
23.02.25
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
3
1
L
27.01.25
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
1
2
W
06.08.22
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
1
1
D
11.03.22
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
10.10.21
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
1
W
22.05.21
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
2
0
L
18.11.20
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
1
2
W
08.02.20
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
2
L
01.09.18
H2H
Cobresal
D. La Serena
0
0
D
Last matches: D. La Serena
02.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
1
2
L
05.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
28.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
2
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
4
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Huachipato
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Union La Calera
3
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
12.10.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
1
6
L
09.07.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Santiago Wanderers
4
2
W
02.07.25
Cop
D. La Serena
San Luis
4
1
W
11.05.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
1
D
06.04.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
2
0
W
09.02.25
Cop
D. La Serena
San Marcos de Arica
2
1
W
25.06.22
Cop
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
L
H2H at home: D. La Serena
24.06.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
24.01.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
26.07.25
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
2
L
11.05.25
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
1
D
11.03.22
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
10.10.21
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
1
W
08.02.20
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
2
L
Last matches: Cobresal
08.08.26
Pri
Cobresal
U. Catolica
0
2
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cobresal
Huachipato
3
3
D
12.07.26
Cop
Cobresal
Antofagasta
0
1
L
24.06.26
Cop
Cobresal
D. La Serena
0
0
D
20.06.26
Cop
Cobresal
Cobreloa
0
2
L
13.06.26
Pri
Cobresal
Colo Colo
0
3
L
23.05.26
Pri
Cobresal
A. Italiano
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
Everton de Vina
1
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Cobresal
Coquimbo Unido
2
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cobresal
Palestino
2
4
L
20.02.26
Pri
Cobresal
Concepción
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Cobresal
Union La Calera
1
3
L
24.01.26
Fri
Cobresal
D. La Serena
3
2
W
11.05.25
Cop
Cobresal
D. La Serena
1
1
D
23.03.25
Cop
Cobresal
Coquimbo Unido
0
0
D
01.02.25
Cop
Cobresal
San Marcos de Arica
1
2
L
06.07.24
Cop
Cobresal
Coquimbo Unido
0
4
L
22.06.24
Cop
Cobresal
Deportes Copiapo
2
2
D
17.06.24
Cop
Cobresal
Provincial Ovalle
3
1
W
H2H away: Cobresal
24.06.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
24.01.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
W
26.07.25
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
2
W
11.05.25
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
1
D
11.03.22
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
W
10.10.21
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
1
L
08.02.20
H2H
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.47
Draw 3.90
Home 1.72
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.43
Home 2.24
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.25 1.52
Over 2.5 1.72
Over 2.75 1.91
Over 3.0 2.20
Over 3.25 2.48
Over 3.5 2.74
Over 4.5 4.99
Under 1.5 4.18
Under 2.25 2.51
Under 2.5 2.12
Under 2.75 1.91
Under 3.0 1.68
Under 3.25 1.54
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.75
Home 1.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.62
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.36
Draw 3.70
Home 1.67
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.78
Draw 2.30
Home 2.17
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 2.75
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.10
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 1.75 1.25
Over 2.0 1.31
Over 2.25 1.47
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.13
Over 3.25 2.32
Over 3.5 2.65
Over 3.75 3.12
Over 4.0 3.90
Over 4.25 4.46
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 4.75 6.06
Over 5.0 7.70
Over 5.5 9.50
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 11.50
Under 0.75 8.60
Under 1.0 8.40
Under 1.25 5.45
Under 1.5 3.90
Under 1.75 3.50
Under 2.0 3.10
Under 2.25 2.50
Under 2.5 2.05
Under 2.75 1.83
Under 3.0 1.63
Under 3.25 1.54
Under 3.5 1.42
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.20
Under 4.25 1.16
Under 4.5 1.13
Under 4.75 1.08
Under 5.0 1.04
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 3.60
Home 1.78
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.25
Home 2.23
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 2.70
Home 2.12
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.0 1.30
Over 2.25 1.49
Over 2.5 1.68
Over 2.75 1.86
Over 3.0 2.16
Over 3.25 2.43
Over 3.5 2.70
Over 3.75 3.25
Over 4.0 4.20
Over 4.25 4.50
Over 4.5 4.80
Over 4.75 5.80
Over 5.0 8.50
Under 1.5 3.85
Under 2.0 3.05
Under 2.25 2.38
Under 2.5 2.02
Under 2.75 1.81
Under 3.0 1.58
Under 3.25 1.47
Under 3.5 1.38
Under 3.75 1.28
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.13
Under 4.75 1.09
Under 5.0 1.05

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 40:19 21 46
D W W W W
2 19 10 6 3 26:13 13 36
W W W W W
3 18 9 3 6 40:26 14 30
W L D W W
4 19 9 3 7 31:27 4 30
W L W L W
5 18 7 8 3 24:22 2 29
W D W D W
6 19 7 6 6 28:22 6 27
D W L D L
7 19 8 2 9 22:23 -1 26
W W W W W
8 17 7 4 6 24:21 3 25
D L D W D
9 18 7 3 8 35:30 5 24
L W L L L
10 19 7 3 9 24:30 -6 24
D L W L L
11 19 7 3 9 28:36 -8 24
L L L D D
12 19 5 8 6 28:31 -3 23
W D L D D
13 19 5 6 8 23:26 -3 21
D D W L D
14 18 5 4 9 13:30 -17 19
L L L L D
15 19 5 2 12 26:36 -10 17
L L W D L
16 19 3 4 12 17:37 -20 13
L L L D D