PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: W. Guadalupe
Cusco
Match Timeline
FC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Hairo Timaná
FC Cajamarca
🟨
28'
Aldair Fuentes
Cusco
🔄
33'
S. Peralta ↔ H. Barcos
FC Cajamarca
🟨
58'
Jefferson Orejuela
FC Cajamarca
🔄
58'
J. Tevez ↔ F. Callejo
Cusco
🔄
58'
L. Colitto ↔ J. Manzaneda
Cusco
🔄
58'
J. Bolivar ↔ M. Ruidias
Cusco
🔄
61'
M. Arrasco ↔ E. Paucar
FC Cajamarca
72'
F. Callejo
Cusco
🔄
73'
I. Colman ↔ G. Carabajal
Cusco
🔄
80'
N. Silva ↔ D. Soto
Cusco
🔄
83'
H. Timana ↔ B. Palacios
FC Cajamarca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 98.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
98.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Cusco Win 98.3%
Draw 0%
FC Cajamarca Win 1.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cusco1.38
FC Cajamarca1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cusco Cusco
WWDLW
14 GF / 23 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
14 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
6
4.08
Shots on Goal
2.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cusco Cusco 13 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 11 matches
Cusco Statistic FC Cajamarca
4 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
14 Goals For 14
23 Goals Against 20
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
8 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 0
4 Failed To Score 5
4.08 Shots On Goal 2.4
11.5 Total Shots 7.1
3.25 Corners 2.8
57.3% Ball Possession 40.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Cusco's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. FC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Cajamarca. Cusco arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 13 points compared to FC Cajamarca in 18 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cusco Analysis

So far, Cusco have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 13 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 12:10 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Facundo Callejo (6 goals), G. Carabajal (2 goals), Iván Colman (1 goals), with creative support from J. Manzaneda (2 assists), M. Ruidias (2 assists), J. Bolivar (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

FC Cajamarca sit 18 with 6 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 10:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on H. Barcos (7 goals), A. Rodriguez (2 goals), B. Palacios (1 goals), with creative support from T. Andrade (3 assists), H. Barcos (1 assists), A. Rodriguez (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Cusco won 1 times, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Cusco's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cusco 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cusco wins 1, draws 0, FC Cajamarca wins 0
Stats
Cusco Cusco
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 2
7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
68% Ball Possession 32%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 5
3 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
546 Total passes 267
479 Passes accurate 190
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cusco
Formation
FC Cajamarca
P. Diaz
P. Diaz
J. Zevallos
J. Zevallos
A. Fuentes
A. Fuentes
C. Gamarra
C. Gamarra
J. Bolivar
J. Bolivar
O. Valenzuela
O. Valenzuela
C. Diez
C. Diez
L. Colitto
L. Colitto
I. Colman
I. Colman
N. Silva
N. Silva
J. Tevez
J. Tevez
C. Mosquera
C. Mosquera
J. C. Vega
J. C. Vega
A. Rodas
A. Rodas
B. Bernaola
B. Bernaola
H. Timana
H. Timana
J. G. Orejuela
J. G. Orejuela
P. Lavandeira Hernandez
P. Lavandeira Hernandez
S. Enciso
S. Enciso
M. Arrasco
M. Arrasco
C. Meza
C. Meza
S. Peralta
S. Peralta
Cusco 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
28
P. Diaz
G
21
J. Zevallos
D
8
A. Fuentes
🟨 28'
D
2
C. Gamarra
D
15
J. Bolivar
↓ 58'
D
16
O. Valenzuela
M
14
C. Diez
M
22
L. Colitto
↓ 58'
M
10
I. Colman
↓ 73'
M
26
N. Silva
↓ 80'
M
11
J. Tevez
↓ 58'
F
Substitutes
13
A. Vidal
G
27
G. Carabajal
↑ 73'
M
5
M. Aucca
M
88
D. Soto
↑ 80'
M
9
F. Callejo
⚽ 72' ↑ 58'
F
7
J. Manzaneda
↑ 58'
F
24
M. Ruidias
↑ 58'
D
32
J. Astudillo
D
17
J. D. Ali Gutierrez
FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
C. Mosquera
G
30
J. C. Vega
D
14
A. Rodas
D
5
B. Bernaola
D
26
H. Timana
↓ 83' 🟨 21'
D
18
J. G. Orejuela
🟨 58'
M
10
P. Lavandeira Hernandez
M
31
S. Enciso
M
11
M. Arrasco
↓ 61'
M
20
C. Meza
M
19
S. Peralta
↓ 33'
Substitutes
12
S. Aspajo
G
25
E. Paucar
↑ 61'
M
67
K. Paico
17
B. Palacios
↑ 83'
M
9
H. Barcos
↑ 33'
F
27
J. Betancourt
4
J. A. Rosell Delgado
D
44
C. Gomez
29
F. Ocas
F
Last matches: Cusco
30.05.26
Pri
Cusco
ADT
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
3
L
23.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
17.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Boys
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
1
D
06.05.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
01.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Lima
0
8
L
14.04.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
L
09.04.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cusco
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Cienciano
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pri
Cusco
Comerciantes Unidos
3
1
W
13.02.26
Pri
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
0
1
L
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
09.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
3
3
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
1
W
H2H: Cusco vs FC Cajamarca
22.04.26
H2H
Cusco
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
Last matches: Cusco
23.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
1
D
06.05.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Cienciano
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Cusco
Comerciantes Unidos
3
1
W
08.02.26
Pri
Cusco
Universitario
1
1
D
H2H at home: Cusco
22.04.26
H2H
Cusco
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
3
3
D
H2H away: FC Cajamarca
22.04.26
H2H
Cusco
FC Cajamarca
1
0
L

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6
Cusco Home
17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)