BRAZIL › SERIE B
03.10.2026 20:00
Arena Pantanal
Referee: Michelangelo Martins De Almeida Junior
Cuiaba
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
26'
Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmo
Cuiaba
🟨
35'
Jean Dias da Costa
Cuiaba
🟨
36'
Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino
Ponte Preta
🟨
45'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
🔄
45'
Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino ↔ Gustavo Lopes Teles
Ponte Preta
🟨
49'
David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo
Cuiaba
🟨
49'
Raul Lô Gonçalves
Cuiaba
🟨
49'
Raul Lô Gonçalves
Cuiaba
🔄
60'
Jean Dias da Costa ↔ Ramon de Araujo Silva Moutinho
Cuiaba
🔄
60'
Fabio Gomes ↔ Pedro Henrique
Cuiaba
🔄
61'
Emanuell Silva Ferreira ↔ Miguel Morais Silva Santos
Ponte Preta
VAR
69'
Pedro Henrique
Cuiaba
🟥
71'
Gilson Kleina
Ponte Preta
⚽
73'
Pedro Henrique
Cuiaba
🔄
74'
David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo ↔ Luiz Otavio
Cuiaba
🔄
74'
Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmo ↔ Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🟨
75'
David da Hora
Ponte Preta
VAR
79'
Eric Almeida de Melo
Cuiaba
🟨
81'
Ramon de Araujo Silva Moutinho
Cuiaba
🔄
81'
Julio De Oliveira ↔ Felipe Di Mauro Reis Coutinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
82'
Guilherme Brandão Azevedo ↔ Danilo
Ponte Preta
🔄
85'
Lorenzo Silva Martins ↔ Weverson Rodrigues Vicente Do Nascimento
Cuiaba

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.19
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.19 ▥
BTTS No
56%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.55 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.2%
1.90 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.57 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 88%
Draw 6%
Ponte Preta Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba1.45
Ponte Preta0.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
30 GF / 25 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
17 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.57
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
2.13
11
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
13
4.13
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 30 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 30 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Ponte Preta
10 Wins 3
13 Draws 4
7 Losses 23
30 Goals For 17
25 Goals Against 64
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.57
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 2.13
11 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 25
8 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 3
12 Failed To Score 16
4.13 Shots On Goal 3.17
13.4 Total Shots 10.47
5.17 Corners 4.27
47.4% Ball Possession 41.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Cuiaba's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ponte Preta. Cuiaba arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 43 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Ponte Preta in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Ponte Preta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Cuiaba Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Cuiaba have collected 43 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 30:22 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Kauan (4 goals), João Basso (2 goals), Fábio Gomes (2 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (3 assists), Kauan (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 13 points from 29 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 22 defeats with a 17:62 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Brandão (3 goals), Elvis (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 2 times, Ponte Preta won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:11 from Cuiaba's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Ponte Preta 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 2, draws 2, Ponte Preta wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
8 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
9 31 12 11 8 42:33 9 47
W L W L W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 31 12 9 10 43:32 11 45
W D W W L
12 31 12 6 13 30:39 -9 42
L L W W L
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 31 10 12 9 37:35 2 42
L D D W L
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17 31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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