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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
11.10.2026 13:30
VEB Arena

CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
CSKA Moscow Win 77%
Draw 4.9%
Rodina Moskva Win 18.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
CSKA Moscow1.88
Rodina Moskva1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow
WWDLW
40 GF / 36 GA
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
WLDWL
23 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
2.09
19
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
14
5.22
Shots on Goal
2.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow 23 matches
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 22 matches
CSKA Moscow Statistic Rodina Moskva
9 Wins 3
9 Draws 6
5 Losses 13
40 Goals For 23
36 Goals Against 46
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 2.09
19 BTTS Yes 13
20 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 14
12 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 8
5.22 Shots On Goal 2.89
15.33 Total Shots 8.78
4.33 Corners 3.78
51.7% Ball Possession 43.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by CSKA Moscow's more proactive style and Rodina Moskva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rodina Moskva. Rodina Moskva arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. CSKA Moscow arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 19 points compared to Rodina Moskva in 15 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CSKA Moscow expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Rodina Moskva in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rodina Moskva having the stronger overall control.

CSKA Moscow Analysis

CSKA Moscow approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 19 points after 9 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, with a 15:9 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on I. Oblyakov (4 goals), L. Gondou (3 goals), K. Glebov (1 goals), with creative support from M. Kislyak (2 assists), L. Gondou (1 assists), K. Glebov (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Rodina Moskva Analysis

Rodina Moskva sit 15 with 5 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 10:22 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Maksimenko (3 goals), Iker Pozo (2 goals), A. Gharibyan (2 goals), with creative support from A. Maksimenko (1 assists), Iker Pozo (1 assists), A. Gharibyan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, CSKA Moscow won 1 times, Rodina Moskva won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:0 from CSKA Moscow's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: CSKA Moscow 5-4-1 / Rodina Moskva 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: CSKA Moscow wins 1, draws 0, Rodina Moskva wins 0

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5 9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16 9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL