BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
CSA
Match Timeline
Lagarto
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
56'
Matheus Melo
CSA
65'
Rian Santana
CSA

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS Yes
67.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
CSA Win 62.7%
Draw 5%
Lagarto Win 32.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
CSA2
Lagarto1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
CSA CSA
WWDLW
26 GF / 9 GA
Lagarto Lagarto
WLDWL
15 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
2.36
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
8
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CSA CSA 11 matches
Lagarto Lagarto 11 matches
CSA Statistic Lagarto
6 Wins 3
4 Draws 5
1 Losses 3
26 Goals For 15
9 Goals Against 16
2.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
8 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together CSA's more proactive style and Lagarto's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lagarto. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. CSA arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Lagarto in 4 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lagarto having the stronger overall control.

CSA Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, CSA arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 21 points after 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 25:8 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Rian Santana (9 goals), Gustavo (3 goals), Ailton Santos (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Lagarto Analysis

Lagarto enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 14:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Rhuann (7 goals), Erik Gabriel (3 goals), Bruninho (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, CSA won 1 times, Lagarto won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from CSA's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
H2H summary: CSA wins 1, draws 1, Lagarto wins 0
Last matches: CSA
15.08.26
Ser
CSA
Uberlandia
0
2
L
08.08.26
Ser
CSA
Uberlandia
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
CSA
São Luiz
2
1
W
19.07.26
Ser
CSA
São Luiz
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
CSA
Ipatinga
4
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
CSA
Ipatinga
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
CSA
Lagarto
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
CSA
Atlético Alagoinhas
7
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
CSA
Jacuipense
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
CSA
ASA
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
CSA
CSE
5
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
CSA
Juazeirense
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
CSA
Juazeirense
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
CSA
CSE
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
CSA
ASA
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
CSA
Jacuipense
3
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
CSA
Atlético Alagoinhas
3
0
W
Last matches: Lagarto
21.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
5
4
W
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
10.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
2
2
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
19.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
4
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
16.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
2
1
W
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
H2H: CSA vs Lagarto
27.06.26
H2H
CSA
Lagarto
2
0
W
21.06.26
H2H
Lagarto
CSA
1
1
D
Last matches: CSA
15.08.26
Ser
CSA
Uberlandia
0
2
L
26.07.26
Ser
CSA
São Luiz
2
1
W
13.07.26
Ser
CSA
Ipatinga
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
CSA
Jacuipense
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
CSA
ASA
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
CSA
Juazeirense
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
CSA
CSE
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
CSA
Atlético Alagoinhas
3
0
W
H2H at home: CSA
27.06.26
H2H
CSA
Lagarto
2
0
W
Last matches: Lagarto
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
1
3
L
10.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
2
D
H2H away: Lagarto
27.06.26
H2H
CSA
Lagarto
2
0
L

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1
CSA Home
10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)