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BRAZIL › SERIE A
26.07.2026 19:00
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Warleson
Botafogo
🟨
35'
Huguinho
Botafogo
🔄
39'
Luis Sinisterra ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
⚽
41'
Gabriel Justino · Assist: Alex Telles
Botafogo
🟨
45+3'
Fagner
Cruzeiro
🟨
45+4'
Nahuel Ferraresi
Botafogo
🟨
56'
Jonathan Jesus
Cruzeiro
🔄
60'
Marquinhos ↔ Keny Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🔄
60'
Fabrício Bruno ↔ João Marcelo
Cruzeiro
🔄
69'
Danilo Santos ↔ Kauan Toledo
Botafogo
🔄
77'
Gabriel Rojas ↔ Kauã Moraes
Cruzeiro
🔄
77'
Fagner ↔ William Furtado
Cruzeiro
🔄
82'
Arthur Cabral ↔ Kadir Barría
Botafogo
🔄
82'
Álvaro Montoro ↔ Santiago Rodríguez
Botafogo
🟨
88'
Alex Telles
Botafogo
🟨
90+8'
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🟨
90+7'
Keny Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🟨
90+4'
Kadir Barría
Botafogo
🔄
90'
Matheus Martins ↔ Lucas Villalba
Botafogo
🔄
90'
Alex Telles ↔ Marçal
Botafogo

Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 43.3%
Draw 16%
Botafogo Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.43
Botafogo1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
36 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
16
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
15
4.56
Shots on Goal
5.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 27 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 23 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Botafogo
11 Wins 8
8 Draws 6
8 Losses 9
37 Goals For 36
35 Goals Against 35
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
16 BTTS Yes 16
22 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 5
4.56 Shots On Goal 5.04
13.6 Total Shots 13.13
4.84 Corners 4.09
55.5% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Botafogo's more proactive style and Cruzeiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Botafogo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Botafogo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro are currently 13 in the standings with 24 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 24:28 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Christian (4 goals), Kaio Jorge (4 goals), Matheus Pereira (3 goals), with creative support from Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), Matheus Pereira (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo sit 9 with 25 points after 18 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 33:32 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Danilo (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Edenilson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 5 times, Botafogo won 2 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:15 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Botafogo 4-4-2
Missing players: Cruzeiro 5, Botafogo 3
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 5, draws 8, Botafogo wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 20 7 4 61:25 36 67
W W D W W
2 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 31 15 6 10 50:46 4 51
W L W W L
5 31 14 9 8 49:39 10 51
L L W W L
6 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
7 31 13 10 8 44:39 5 49
L W L L W
8 31 12 9 10 48:46 2 45
W L D W W
9 31 12 6 13 36:35 1 42
W W L L W
10 31 11 8 12 39:36 3 41
D W D L L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 30 9 8 13 36:43 -7 35
L D W W W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 31 7 10 14 34:44 -10 31
L D D D L
19 31 5 11 15 34:49 -15 26
D D D L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B