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BRAZIL › SERIE B
26.07.2026 19:00
Estádio Heriberto Hülse
Referee: Y. Ferreira
Criciuma
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
20'
Luiz Felipe ↔ B. Borasi
Nautico Recife
🟨
30'
Gustavo Henrique
Nautico Recife
🟨
40'
Matheus Ribeiro
Nautico Recife
🔄
45+1'
Matheus Ribeiro ↔ Betao
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🟨
48'
Betão
Nautico Recife
🔄
59'
Eduardo ↔ Nicolas
Criciuma
🔄
67'
Waguininho ↔ Jhonata Robert
Criciuma
🔄
68'
R. Otero ↔ Diego Goncalves
Criciuma
🔄
68'
Samuel Felix ↔ Auremir
Nautico Recife
🔄
68'
Derek ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
82'
Gui Lobo ↔ Ronald Lopes
Criciuma
🔄
82'
Luciano Castan ↔ Hiago Alves
Criciuma
🟨
90'
Wenderson
Nautico Recife

Criciuma vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.3%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Criciuma Win 83.3%
Draw 8.3%
Nautico Recife Win 8.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma1.23
Nautico Recife1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Criciuma Criciuma
WWDLW
23 GF / 12 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
24 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.26
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
9
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
8
3.58
Shots on Goal
4.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Criciuma Criciuma 19 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 19 matches
Criciuma Statistic Nautico Recife
11 Wins 7
6 Draws 3
2 Losses 9
23 Goals For 24
12 Goals Against 24
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
9 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 8
3.58 Shots On Goal 4.32
12.89 Total Shots 16
6.05 Corners 5.95
51.1% Ball Possession 60%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Criciuma's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Criciuma come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nautico Recife. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Criciuma expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Criciuma arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 36 points compared to Nautico Recife in 14 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Criciuma Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 36 points from 18 games, Criciuma bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 10 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:12, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Fellipe Mateus (3 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), Waguininho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Waguininho (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife sit 14 with 21 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 22:23, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Vinícius (4 goals), Dodô (2 goals), Victor Andrade (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 8 times, Nautico Recife won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:5 from Criciuma's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Criciuma 3-4-3 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Criciuma wins 8, draws 3, Nautico Recife wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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