ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
10.10.2026 14:00
The Broadfield Stadium

Crawley Town vs Chesterfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 85.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
85.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Crawley Town Win 7.3%
Draw 7.3%
Chesterfield Win 85.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Crawley Town1.01
Chesterfield1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Crawley Town Crawley Town
WWDLW
8 GF / 17 GA
Chesterfield Chesterfield
WLDWL
18 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
5
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
6
3.29
Shots on Goal
6.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Crawley Town Crawley Town 10 matches
Chesterfield Chesterfield 12 matches
Crawley Town Statistic Chesterfield
2 Wins 4
1 Draws 4
7 Losses 4
8 Goals For 18
17 Goals Against 16
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
5 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 2
3.29 Shots On Goal 6.56
14 Total Shots 18.44
4.43 Corners 5.78
58% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Chesterfield's more proactive style and Crawley Town's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Crawley Town expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Chesterfield in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chesterfield having the stronger overall control. Crawley Town have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chesterfield. Chesterfield carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 11 points while Crawley Town sit 24 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Crawley Town Analysis

With 4 points from 7 games and a place of 24, Crawley Town still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 6:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Aderoju (2 goals), D. Orsi (1 goals), L. Watson (1 goals), with creative support from D. Orsi (1 assists), K. Gordon (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chesterfield Analysis

So far, Chesterfield have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 11 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Bonis (3 goals), L. Marsh (3 goals), D. Markanday (2 goals), with creative support from L. Bonis (1 assists), G. McEachran (1 assists), J. Koroma (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Crawley Town won 1 times, Chesterfield won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Crawley Town's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (92.7%)
Predicted formations: Crawley Town 4-4-2 / Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Crawley Town wins 1, draws 3, Chesterfield wins 2

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3 9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League