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BRAZIL › SERIE A
22.07.2026 22:30
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Coritiba
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Mauricio · Assist: Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
🟨
15'
Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
⚽
19'
Mauricio
Palmeiras
🟨
38'
Alexander Barboza
Palmeiras
🟨
45'
Thiago Santos
Coritiba
🔄
46'
Sebastian Gomez ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba
🔄
59'
Joaquín Lavega ↔ Lucas Ronier
Coritiba
🔄
65'
Renato Marques ↔ Paulo Roberto
Coritiba
🔄
65'
Bruno Melo ↔ Felipe Jonatan
Coritiba
⚽
67'
Ramón Sosa · Assist: Joaquín Piquerez
Palmeiras
⚽
68'
Paulo Roberto · Assist: Josué
Coritiba
🔄
77'
Thiago Santos ↔ João Pedro Chermont
Coritiba
🔄
77'
Tinga ↔ Brian Ocampo
Coritiba
🟨
79'
Khellven
Palmeiras
🔄
79'
Mauricio ↔ Emiliano Martínez
Palmeiras
🔄
80'
Jhon Arias ↔ Riquelme Fillipi
Palmeiras
🔄
90'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
🔄
90'
Ramón Sosa ↔ Heittor
Palmeiras

Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 33.8%
Draw 14%
Palmeiras Win 52.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.1
Palmeiras1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
24 GF / 24 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
40 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
8
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
11
3.28
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 18 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 24 matches
Coritiba Statistic Palmeiras
7 Wins 15
5 Draws 7
6 Losses 2
24 Goals For 40
24 Goals Against 18
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
8 BTTS Yes 15
13 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 2
3.28 Shots On Goal 4.83
10.17 Total Shots 14.42
3.22 Corners 6.04
38.7% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Coritiba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Palmeiras. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palmeiras carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 41 points while Coritiba sit 7 on 26, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba sit 7 with 26 points after 18 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 24:24 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (8 goals), J. Lavega (5 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (7 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 41 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 30:13 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by J. Lopez (6 goals), Allan Elias (4 goals), G. Gomez (3 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), J. Lopez (3 assists), Allan Elias (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 6 times, Palmeiras won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:22 from Coritiba's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Palmeiras 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 6, draws 1, Palmeiras wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B