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BRAZIL › SERIE A
12.09.2026 00:00
Estádio Couto Pereira
Referee: W. do Nascimento
Coritiba
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
Luiz Gustavo · Assist: L. Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
28'
Joaquin Lavega
Coritiba
⚽
30'
Arthur Dias · Assist: Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
34'
Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
43'
João Victor Machado Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
VAR
44'
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
🟥
45+1'
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
🟨
45+5'
João Vitor Silva Dantas de Oliveira
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
45+9'
JP Chermont
Coritiba
🟨
45+12'
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
⚽
45'
Tiago Coser
Coritiba
🔄
46'
Joao Pedro Chermont ↔ Rodrigo Moledo
Coritiba
🔄
46'
Bruno Melo ↔ Richard
Coritiba
🔄
46'
Pedro Rocha ↔ Rodrigo Rodrigues
Coritiba
🔄
46'
J. Lavega ↔ Paulo Roberto
Coritiba
🔄
46'
G. Benavidez ↔ Gilberto
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Joao Cruz ↔ C. Teran
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Dantas ↔ Felipinho
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
63'
K. Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
67'
K. Viveros ↔ Renan Peixoto
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
74'
Thiago Santos ↔ Rodrigo Gelado
Coritiba
🟨
90+3'
Luiz Gustavo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90+4'
S. Mendoza ↔ J. Portilla
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
90'
Rodrigo Moledo · Assist: Josue
Coritiba
⚽
90'
Rodrigo Moledo · Assist: Josue
Coritiba

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.7%
Odds 2.43
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.91
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.20
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.7%
2.43 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.20 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.3%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 35.5%
Draw 15.7%
Atletico Paranaense Win 48.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.23
Atletico Paranaense1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
34 GF / 35 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
39 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
14
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
13
3.42
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 26 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 28 matches
Coritiba Statistic Atletico Paranaense
10 Wins 13
7 Draws 6
9 Losses 9
34 Goals For 39
35 Goals Against 31
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
14 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 7
3.42 Shots On Goal 4.88
11.04 Total Shots 12.27
3.54 Corners 4.73
39.8% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Coritiba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Coritiba expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Paranaense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Coritiba Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Coritiba have collected 37 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 33:33 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (5 goals), Joaquín Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (8 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 45 points after 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 37:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kevin Viveros (17 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), João Cruz (4 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 4 times, Atletico Paranaense won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:13 from Coritiba's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Coritiba 4, Atletico Paranaense 2
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 4, draws 6, Atletico Paranaense wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B