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BRAZIL › SERIE A
26.04.2026 19:00
Neo Química Arena
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil
Corinthians
Match Timeline
Vasco DA Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
Gustavo Henrique
Corinthians
🟨
31'
Tchê Tchê
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
31'
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
38'
Matheus Bidu · Assist: Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
🟨
41'
Cauan Barros
Vasco DA Gama
🟥
45'
André Luiz
Corinthians
🔄
46'
Cuiabano ↔ Lucas Piton
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
46'
Thiago Mendes ↔ Johan Rojas
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
63'
Vitinho ↔ Jesse Lingard
Corinthians
🔄
63'
Tchê Tchê ↔ Adson
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
68'
David ↔ Claudio Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
77'
Rodrigo Garro ↔ Andre Carrillo
Corinthians
🔄
78'
Paulo Henrique ↔ Nuno Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
82'
Johan Rojas
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
89'
Breno Bidon ↔ Matheus Pereira
Corinthians
🔄
89'
Matheus Bidu ↔ Fabrizio Angileri
Corinthians
🟨
90+7'
Kauê
Corinthians

Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
61.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.2%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 44.8%
Draw 21.7%
Vasco DA Gama Win 33.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians1.12
Vasco DA Gama1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
12 GF / 11 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
18 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
5
BTTS Yes
11
2
Over 2.5
8
3.21
Shots on Goal
5.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 14 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 12 matches
Corinthians Statistic Vasco DA Gama
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
12 Goals For 18
11 Goals Against 18
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
5 BTTS Yes 11
9 Over 1.5 11
2 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 0
5 Failed To Score 1
3.21 Shots On Goal 5.25
10 Total Shots 17.42
4.57 Corners 5.5
53.9% Ball Possession 53.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Corinthians appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Vasco DA Gama. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vasco DA Gama. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 12 points from 12 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andre (1 goals), Breno Bidon (1 goals), Gabriel Paulista (1 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (3 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), Kaio César (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Depay, Gui Negao, Joao Pedro unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama are currently 10 in the standings with 16 points from 12 matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 16:17 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Cauan Barros (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Andres Gomez (2 goals), with creative support from Cuiabano (4 assists), J. Rodriguez (3 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Jair, Mateus Carvalho unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 11 times, Vasco DA Gama won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:12 from Corinthians's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.3%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Corinthians 7, Vasco DA Gama 2
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 11, draws 3, Vasco DA Gama wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B