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BRAZIL › SERIE A
10.05.2026 21:30
Neo Química Arena
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Corinthians
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
17'
Raniele · Assist: Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
⚽
41'
Luciano · Assist: Damián Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
🟨
45+1'
Gabriel Paulista
Corinthians
🟨
45+1'
Matheus Bidu
Corinthians
🟨
45+1'
Sabino
Sao Paulo
🟨
45+1'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
VAR
45+6'
Damián Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
⚽
52'
Matheuzinho · Assist: André Carrillo
Corinthians
⚽
57'
Breno Bidon · Assist: Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
🔄
69'
Danielzinho ↔ Luan Santos
Sao Paulo
🔄
69'
Ferreirinha ↔ Cauly
Sao Paulo
🟨
73'
Enzo Díaz
Sao Paulo
🔄
83'
André Carrillo ↔ Dieguinho
Corinthians
🔄
83'
Enzo Díaz ↔ Wendell
Sao Paulo
🔄
88'
Rodrigo Garro ↔ Zakaria Labyad
Corinthians
🔄
88'
Yuri Alberto ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
⚽
89'
Matheuzinho
Sao Paulo
🟨
90+5'
Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🟨
90+4'
Zakaria Labyad
Corinthians
🟨
90+4'
Luan Santos
Sao Paulo
🔄
90'
Damián Bobadilla ↔ André Silva
Sao Paulo

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 52.8%
Draw 4.5%
Sao Paulo Win 42.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians0.94
Sao Paulo1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
17 GF / 14 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
19 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
7
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
5
3.33
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 18 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 14 matches
Corinthians Statistic Sao Paulo
6 Wins 7
7 Draws 3
5 Losses 4
17 Goals For 19
14 Goals Against 13
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
7 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 10
3 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
3.33 Shots On Goal 3.93
10.56 Total Shots 12.07
4.78 Corners 6.79
55.2% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Corinthians's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sao Paulo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 24 points while Corinthians sit 17 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sao Paulo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 17 with 15 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 10:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Matheus Bidu (2 goals), Andre (1 goals), Breno Bidon (1 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (4 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), Kaio César (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 24 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 19:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), Luciano (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Marcos Antonio (2 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 4 times, Sao Paulo won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:25 from Corinthians's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Corinthians 7, Sao Paulo 6
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 4, draws 5, Sao Paulo wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
2 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 31 15 6 10 50:46 4 51
W L W W L
5 31 14 9 8 49:39 10 51
L L W W L
6 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
7 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
8 31 12 9 10 48:46 2 45
W L D W W
9 31 12 6 13 36:35 1 42
W W L L W
10 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 30 9 8 13 36:43 -7 35
L D W W W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 31 7 10 14 34:44 -10 31
L D D D L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B