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BRAZIL › SERIE A
30.07.2026 22:30
Neo Química Arena
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Corinthians
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
45+1'
Jádson
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Dieguinho ↔ Yuri Alberto
Corinthians
🔄
46'
Zakaria Labyad ↔ Kaio César
Corinthians
🔄
46'
Claudinho ↔ Leonardo Derik
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
Leozinho ↔ Dudu
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
Steven Mendoza ↔ João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
77'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Breno Bidon
Corinthians
🔄
78'
Yuri Alberto ↔ Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
🔄
82'
Kevin Viveros ↔ Jorge Rivaldo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
83'
André Carrillo ↔ André Luiz
Corinthians
🟨
86'
André Ramalho
Corinthians
🟨
86'
Juan Portilla
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
87'
Matheuzinho
Corinthians
🟨
90+2'
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
🟨
90+5'
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90'
Carlos Terán ↔ Juan Felipe Aguirre
Atletico Paranaense

Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 54.6%
Draw 4.5%
Atletico Paranaense Win 41%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians1.09
Atletico Paranaense1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
31 GF / 25 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
29 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1
13
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
10
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 27 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 22 matches
Corinthians Statistic Atletico Paranaense
10 Wins 11
10 Draws 3
7 Losses 8
31 Goals For 29
25 Goals Against 22
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1
13 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.7
12.04 Total Shots 12.25
4.65 Corners 4.95
56.7% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Corinthians's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Paranaense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Corinthians expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control.

Corinthians Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Corinthians have collected 24 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 18:19 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by André Luiz (3 goals), Rodrigo Garro (2 goals), Matheus Bidu (2 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 5 with 30 points from 18 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kevin Viveros (11 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 9 times, Atletico Paranaense won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:11 from Corinthians's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Corinthians 6, Atletico Paranaense 4
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 9, draws 5, Atletico Paranaense wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6 29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B