CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Municipal de Collao
Referee: Cristian Garay, Chile
Concepción
Match Timeline
Huachipato
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
5'
L. Valencia Rossel ↔ L. Romero
Concepción
🟨
6'
Alvaro Abarzua
Huachipato
32'
E. Espinoza
Concepción
🔄
46'
M. Rodriguez ↔ M. Briceno
Huachipato
🔄
46'
A. Abarzua ↔ M. A. Leon Munoz
Huachipato
🔄
46'
G. Guaiquil ↔ M. Osorio
Huachipato
🟨
47'
Leenhan Romero
Concepción
🔄
61'
L. Velasquez ↔ J. Figueroa
Huachipato
70'
J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
75'
↔ M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
75'
A. Jara ↔ M. Cavalleri
Concepción
🔄
77'
S. Silva ↔ E. Canete
Huachipato
🔄
84'
E. Espinoza ↔ N. Sepulveda
Concepción
🔄
84'
J. Larrivey ↔ C. Escobar
Concepción
🟨
85'
Nicolás Vargas
Huachipato
🟨
87'
Nelson Sepúlveda
Concepción
🟨
88'
Ezequiel Cañete
Huachipato
🟨
90+1'
Lionel Altamirano
Huachipato

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 67.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
67.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
79%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 12.3%
Draw 20.5%
Huachipato Win 67.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción0.89
Huachipato1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
9 GF / 21 GA
Huachipato Huachipato
WLDWL
22 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.69
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
5
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
9
2.83
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 13 matches
Huachipato Huachipato 15 matches
Concepción Statistic Huachipato
2 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
9 Losses 6
9 Goals For 22
21 Goals Against 18
0.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
5 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 9
1 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 6
2.83 Shots On Goal 5.14
11.83 Total Shots 12.93
4.58 Corners 3.64
48.4% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Huachipato's more proactive style and Concepción's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Huachipato. Huachipato look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Huachipato carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while Concepción sit 16 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Concepción expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Huachipato in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Huachipato having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción sit 16 with 8 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 8:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Larrivey (3 goals), C. Waterman (2 goals), I. S. Mesias Gonzalez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Larrivey (1 assists), C. Waterman (1 assists), A. Diaz (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Huachipato Analysis

Huachipato come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 22 points after 12 matches. With 7 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:15, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by L. Altamirano (5 goals), C. Martinez (3 goals), M. Gutierrez (3 goals), with creative support from M. Rodriguez (3 assists), N. Vargas (2 assists), Nelson Guillermo Guaiquil (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 3 times, Huachipato won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from Concepción's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (87.7%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-1-4-1 / Huachipato 4-3-3
H2H summary: Concepción wins 3, draws 2, Huachipato wins 2
Stats
Concepción Concepción
Huachipato Huachipato
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 3
13 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 3
6 Shots insidebox 8
7 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
306 Total passes 381
214 Passes accurate 294
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Concepción
Formation
Huachipato
N. Araya
N. Araya
A. Caceres
A. Caceres
N. Rodriguez
N. Rodriguez
F. Grillo
F. Grillo
M. Davila Carvajal
M. Davila Carvajal
J. Henriquez
J. Henriquez
Y. Rodriguez
Y. Rodriguez
L. Valencia Rossel
L. Valencia Rossel
A. Jara
A. Jara
J. Larrivey
J. Larrivey
E. Espinoza
E. Espinoza
C. Bravo
C. Bravo
G. Guaiquil
G. Guaiquil
R. Caroca
R. Caroca
N. Vargas
N. Vargas
L. Velasquez
L. Velasquez
A. Abarzua
A. Abarzua
C. Sepulveda
C. Sepulveda
S. Silva
S. Silva
C. Martinez
C. Martinez
L. Altamirano
L. Altamirano
M. Rodriguez
M. Rodriguez
Concepción 4-3-3
Starting XI
25
N. Araya
G
4
A. Caceres
D
21
N. Rodriguez
D
37
F. Grillo
D
22
M. Davila Carvajal
D
20
J. Henriquez
M
18
Y. Rodriguez
M
10
L. Valencia Rossel
↓ 5'
M
19
A. Jara
↓ 75'
F
32
J. Larrivey
⚽ 70' ↓ 84'
F
30
E. Espinoza
⚽ 32' ↓ 84'
Substitutes
1
Cesar
G
27
N. Sepulveda
↑ 84' 🟨 87'
M
16
M. Sandoval
↑ 75'
M
11
B. Vejar
M
29
D. Varas
D
9
C. Escobar
↑ 84'
24
M. Cavalleri
↑ 75'
F
26
L. Romero
↑ 5' 🟨 47'
M
2
M. Ramirez
F
Huachipato 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
C. Bravo
G
2
G. Guaiquil
↓ 46'
D
5
R. Caroca
D
14
N. Vargas
🟨 85'
D
27
L. Velasquez
↓ 61'
D
33
A. Abarzua
↓ 46' 🟨 6'
M
6
C. Sepulveda
M
8
S. Silva
↓ 77'
M
23
C. Martinez
M
9
L. Altamirano
🟨 90+1'
F
15
M. Rodriguez
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
49
I. Cruzat
G
7
M. Briceno
↑ 46'
F
24
M. A. Leon Munoz
↑ 46'
11
J. Figueroa
↑ 61'
F
38
S. Melgarejo
M
10
E. Canete
↑ 77' 🟨 88'
M
13
R. Malanca
D
18
B. Ampuero
36
M. Osorio
↑ 46'
D
Last matches: Concepción
02.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
2
1
W
29.06.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
30.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Palestino
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
14.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Union La Calera
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
0
2
L
02.02.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
1
2
L
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
Last matches: Huachipato
05.07.26
Cop
Huachipato
D. Puerto Montt
1
2
L
02.07.26
Cop
Huachipato
Concepción
1
2
L
28.06.26
Cop
Huachipato
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Huachipato
Concepción
2
3
L
21.06.26
Cop
Huachipato
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Huachipato
Nublense
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
Huachipato
U. Catolica
0
3
L
17.05.26
Pri
Huachipato
Union La Calera
3
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Huachipato
D. La Serena
0
0
D
20.04.26
Pri
Huachipato
A. Italiano
3
2
W
11.04.26
Pri
Huachipato
O'Higgins
2
0
W
07.04.26
Pri
Huachipato
Universidad de Concepcion
5
1
W
16.03.26
Pri
Huachipato
Colo Colo
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Huachipato
Coquimbo Unido
1
3
L
28.02.26
Pri
Huachipato
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
24.02.26
CON
Huachipato
Carabobo FC
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Huachipato
Palestino
2
1
W
17.02.26
CON
Huachipato
Carabobo FC
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pri
Huachipato
Everton de Vina
3
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Huachipato
Universidad de Chile
2
1
W
H2H: Concepción vs Huachipato
02.07.26
H2H
Huachipato
Concepción
1
2
W
24.06.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
24.05.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
05.05.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
0
1
L
21.03.26
H2H
Huachipato
Concepción
2
2
D
10.07.25
H2H
Huachipato
Concepción
2
0
L
02.07.25
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D
Last matches: Concepción
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
H2H at home: Concepción
24.06.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
24.05.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
05.05.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
0
1
L
02.07.25
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D
Last matches: Huachipato
05.07.26
Cop
Huachipato
D. Puerto Montt
1
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Huachipato
Concepción
2
3
L
14.06.26
Pri
Huachipato
Nublense
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Huachipato
D. La Serena
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Huachipato
O'Higgins
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pri
Huachipato
Colo Colo
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Huachipato
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
17.02.26
CON
Huachipato
Carabobo FC
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pri
Huachipato
Everton de Vina
3
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
Huachipato
Cobresal
0
1
L
H2H away: Huachipato
24.06.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
L
24.05.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
L
05.05.26
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
0
1
W
02.07.25
H2H
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D

Standings

Primera
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 0 3 29:12 17 36
W W W W W
2 15 8 2 5 35:20 15 26
W W L W L
3 15 6 6 3 17:10 7 24
W D W L W
4 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
5 15 7 3 5 23:21 2 24
W D W W L
6 15 7 2 6 23:22 1 23
D L L W D
7 15 6 4 5 19:15 4 22
L W D W W
8 15 5 7 3 18:19 -1 22
D W D L L
9 15 6 3 6 30:23 7 21
L L L L D
10 15 6 2 7 19:22 -3 20
L D L L W
11 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
12 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D L W L D
13 15 4 4 7 18:21 -3 16
D D W L D
14 15 4 2 9 14:23 -9 14
W L W L W
15 15 4 1 10 19:29 -10 13
L L L W L
16 15 3 3 9 14:28 -14 12
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso