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10.05.2026 20:15
Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Referee: Walter Guadalupe, Peru
Comerciantes Unidos
Match Timeline
FBC Melgar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
Javier Salas · Assist: Nicolás Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🔄
56'
Agustin Rodriguez ↔ Matias Sen
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
56'
Flavio Alcedo ↔ Thiago Salinas
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
61'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
64'
Alec Deneumostier
FBC Melgar
🔄
72'
Matías Zegarra ↔ Gian García
FBC Melgar
🔄
73'
Rodrigo Vilca ↔ Carlos Saavedra
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
73'
Josuee Herrera ↔ Miguel Carranza
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
81'
Nelson Cabanillas ↔ Alejandro Ramos
FBC Melgar
🔄
81'
Jhonny Vidales ↔ Bernardo Cuesta
FBC Melgar
🟨
82'
Alejandro Ramos
FBC Melgar
⚽
90+3'
Piero Guzmán · Assist: Thiago Salinas
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
90'
Fabio Rojas ↔ Jean Carlo Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
90'
Jefferson Caceres ↔ Jhamir D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar

Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Comerciantes Unidos Win 59.5%
Draw 12.6%
FBC Melgar Win 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
Comerciantes Unidos1.22
FBC Melgar1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WWDLW
18 GF / 18 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
26 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
9
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
10
3.46
Shots on Goal
3.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 15 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 16 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Statistic FBC Melgar
5 Wins 8
5 Draws 2
5 Losses 6
18 Goals For 26
18 Goals Against 20
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
9 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 2
3.46 Shots On Goal 3.92
10.92 Total Shots 12.92
3.31 Corners 5.08
41.1% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward FBC Melgar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Comerciantes Unidos expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos are currently 7 in the standings with 19 points from 13 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 17:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Matias Sen (5 goals), Juan Rodríguez (2 goals), Maximiliano Perez (2 goals), with creative support from R. Vilca (3 assists), J. Herrera (2 assists), A. Cossio (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

FBC Melgar Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 20 points from 13 games, FBC Melgar bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 20:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Vidales (5 goals), B. Cuesta (4 goals), M. Zegarra (3 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (4 assists), M. Zegarra (3 assists), B. Cuesta (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 times, FBC Melgar won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:15 from Comerciantes Unidos's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.45 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: Comerciantes Unidos 3-4-2-1 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Comerciantes Unidos wins 1, draws 7, FBC Melgar wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 8 3 49:20 29 62
W W W L D
2 29 15 8 6 49:34 15 53
W D L W D
3 29 14 8 7 51:33 18 50
W D D W W
4 29 14 6 9 41:29 12 48
L L W L W
5 29 14 5 10 49:40 9 47
W W D L W
6 29 13 7 9 38:46 -8 46
W D D L L
7 29 14 3 12 42:42 0 45
L L W L W
8 29 13 5 11 53:42 11 44
W W W W W
9 29 12 7 10 44:40 4 43
L W W L W
10 29 12 5 12 40:45 -5 41
W W W W W
11 29 10 8 11 30:31 -1 38
L L D W L
12 29 10 8 11 45:53 -8 38
W D W W D
13 29 9 6 14 27:34 -7 33
L D L W L
14 29 7 10 12 38:43 -5 31
L D L L D
15 29 7 7 15 41:53 -12 28
L D L W L
16 29 7 7 15 25:43 -18 28
W L L L L
17 29 6 8 15 30:44 -14 26
L D W L L
18 29 4 8 17 32:52 -20 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2