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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.07.2026 23:15
Lower.com Field
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Columbus Crew
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
K. Denkey · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
⚽
41'
J. Thiare · Assist: D. Chambost
Columbus Crew
⚽
45'
D. Gazdag
Columbus Crew
🔄
46'
S. Bangoura ↔ A. Gomes
Columbus Crew
🔄
64'
E. Echenique ↔ B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
🔄
64'
K. Mboma ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🟨
66'
Matt Miazga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
69'
D. Chambost ↔ T. Karumanchi
Columbus Crew
🔄
70'
K. Denkey ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
70'
M. Miazga ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
79'
J. Thiare ↔ H. Picard
Columbus Crew
🔄
85'
D. Gazdag ↔ C. Adams
Columbus Crew
🔄
85'
S. Moreira ↔ M. Amundsen
Columbus Crew
🔄
85'
O. Nwobodo ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90+4'
André Gomes
Columbus Crew
🟥
90+4'
Gerardo Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati

Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Columbus Crew Win 50.1%
Draw 4.5%
FC Cincinnati Win 45.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Columbus Crew1.67
FC Cincinnati2.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Columbus Crew Columbus Crew
WWDLW
27 GF / 28 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
65 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
2.6
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
2.04
13
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
17
4.06
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 19 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 25 matches
Columbus Crew Statistic FC Cincinnati
5 Wins 11
5 Draws 7
9 Losses 7
27 Goals For 65
28 Goals Against 51
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 2.6
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 2.04
13 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 16
3 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 2
4.06 Shots On Goal 6
11.5 Total Shots 13.75
5.25 Corners 4.45
57.4% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cincinnati. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Columbus Crew expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Columbus Crew have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Columbus Crew Analysis

With 16 points from 15 games and a place of 10, Columbus Crew still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 21:23 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Diego Rossi (4 goals), Maximilian Arfsten (3 goals), Hugo Picard (2 goals), with creative support from Maximilian Arfsten (2 assists), Hugo Picard (2 assists), Mohamed Farsi (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

So far, FC Cincinnati have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 20 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 36:37 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Evander (9 goals), Kévin Denkey (7 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (5 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Columbus Crew won 7 times, FC Cincinnati won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:20 from Columbus Crew's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Columbus Crew 4-4-2 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Columbus Crew 3, FC Cincinnati 0
H2H summary: Columbus Crew wins 7, draws 4, FC Cincinnati wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
3 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
4 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
5 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
13 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)