MEXICO LIGA MX
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Estadio La Corregidora

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds 4.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
4.00
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.56
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Club Queretaro Win 56.5%
Draw 6.2%
Toluca Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Queretaro1.32
Toluca1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro
WWDLW
10 GF / 6 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
28 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
2.15
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
3
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
9
4
Shots on Goal
6.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 7 matches
Toluca Toluca 13 matches
Club Queretaro Statistic Toluca
4 Wins 6
2 Draws 3
1 Losses 4
10 Goals For 28
6 Goals Against 15
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 2.15
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
3 BTTS Yes 7
4 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 6.55
12.75 Total Shots 18
3.75 Corners 4.82
38.5% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Queretaro won 4 times, Toluca won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:26 from Club Queretaro's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Queretaro wins 4, draws 5, Toluca wins 6
Last matches: Club Queretaro
16.08.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
0
D
01.08.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Tigres UANL
3
2
W
27.07.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
CF Pachuca
2
1
W
19.07.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Club America
0
1
L
03.07.26
Fri
Club Queretaro
Austin
1
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Club Queretaro
Atletico San Luis
2
2
D
20.06.26
Fri
Club Queretaro
Reboceros La Piedad
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Puebla
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Mazatlán
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Necaxa
3
1
W
08.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
W
21.03.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Atlas
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Club America
1
2
L
05.03.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Monterrey
0
4
L
28.02.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
2
2
D
14.02.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Atletico San Luis
0
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Leon
2
0
W
Last matches: Toluca
15.08.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlante FC
0
0
D
03.08.26
Lig
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
23.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
H2H: Club Queretaro vs Toluca
04.04.26
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
W
18.10.25
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
4
0
L
27.02.25
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
5
0
L
19.10.24
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
0
1
L
13.01.24
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
2
2
D
08.10.23
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
3
1
L
06.03.23
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
W
02.10.22
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
4
1
L
25.02.22
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
1
D
03.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
1
1
D
10.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
3
1
L
04.09.20
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
4
1
W
07.03.20
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
1
D
21.07.19
H2H
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
2
W
13.04.19
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
0
0
D
Last matches: Club Queretaro
01.08.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Tigres UANL
3
2
W
19.07.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Club America
0
1
L
26.06.26
Fri
Club Queretaro
Atletico San Luis
2
2
D
22.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Necaxa
3
1
W
08.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Club America
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
2
2
D
07.02.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Leon
2
0
W
01.02.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
CF Pachuca
0
0
D
15.01.26
Lig
Club Queretaro
Club Tijuana
1
2
L
02.11.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Mazatlán
1
0
W
23.10.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
1
0
W
04.10.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Puebla
3
1
W
28.09.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Tigres UANL
0
2
L
14.09.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Monterrey
0
1
L
23.08.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Atletico San Luis
3
2
W
17.08.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
Atlas
3
3
D
26.07.25
Lig
Club Queretaro
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
2
L
H2H at home: Club Queretaro
04.04.26
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
W
19.10.24
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
0
1
L
13.01.24
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
2
2
D
06.03.23
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
W
25.02.22
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
1
D
04.09.20
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
4
1
W
07.03.20
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
1
D
13.04.19
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
0
0
D
Last matches: Toluca
15.08.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlante FC
0
0
D
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
23.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
12.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
2
3
L
04.03.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
2
W
22.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Puebla
0
0
D
18.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
1
0
W
12.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
04.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
0
1
L
27.11.25
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
2
1
W
H2H away: Toluca
04.04.26
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
L
19.10.24
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
0
1
W
13.01.24
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
2
2
D
06.03.23
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
0
L
25.02.22
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
1
D
04.09.20
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
4
1
L
07.03.20
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
1
1
D
13.04.19
H2H
Club Queretaro
Toluca
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.81
Draw 4.01
Home 4.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.31
Draw 2.54
Home 4.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.56
Over 2.75 1.69
Over 3.0 1.90
Over 3.25 2.15
Over 3.5 2.39
Over 4.5 4.14
Under 1.5 5.04
Under 2.5 2.44
Under 2.75 2.19
Under 3.0 1.93
Under 3.25 1.72
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 4.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.75
Draw 3.90
Home 3.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 2.50
Home 4.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.05
Draw 2.75
Home 3.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 34.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.83
Draw 3.78
Home 3.82
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 2.31
Home 4.32
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.12
Draw 2.72
Home 3.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.25 1.07
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 1.75 1.18
Over 2.0 1.22
Over 2.25 1.42
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.85
Over 3.25 2.07
Over 3.5 2.30
Over 3.75 2.69
Over 4.0 3.34
Over 4.25 3.58
Over 4.5 3.95
Over 4.75 4.85
Over 5.0 6.50
Over 5.5 7.10
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 34.00
Under 0.5 13.30
Under 1.0 9.70
Under 1.25 5.95
Under 1.5 4.40
Under 1.75 4.02
Under 2.0 3.62
Under 2.25 2.76
Under 2.5 2.31
Under 2.75 2.07
Under 3.0 1.80
Under 3.25 1.60
Under 3.5 1.49
Under 3.75 1.36
Under 4.0 1.24
Under 4.25 1.21
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 4.75 1.11
Under 5.0 1.05
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.84
Draw 3.70
Home 3.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.28
Draw 2.30
Home 3.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.15
Draw 2.88
Home 3.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.15
Over 2.25 1.41
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 2.75 1.71
Over 3.0 1.92
Over 3.25 2.18
Over 3.5 2.40
Over 3.75 2.90
Over 4.5 4.40
Over 5.5 8.50
Under 1.5 4.70
Under 2.25 2.80
Under 2.5 2.32
Under 2.75 2.07
Under 3.0 1.83
Under 3.25 1.64
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 3.75 1.38
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.04

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 3 1 0 8:1 7 10
W W D W
2 4 3 1 0 6:2 4 10
W D W W
3 4 3 0 1 12:5 7 9
W W L W
4 4 3 0 1 6:5 1 9
W L W W
5 4 2 1 1 6:3 3 7
D W L W
6 4 2 1 1 7:5 2 7
D W W L
7 4 2 1 1 6:5 1 7
W D L W
8 4 2 1 1 5:4 1 7
D W W L
9 4 2 1 1 3:3 0 7
W D W L
10 4 2 0 2 8:8 0 6
L L W W
11 4 2 0 2 5:5 0 6
W W L L
12 4 2 0 2 6:7 -1 6
L L W W
13 4 1 2 1 5:5 0 5
D W D L
14 4 1 0 3 6:6 0 3
L L L W
15 4 0 2 2 4:8 -4 2
L D D L
16 4 0 1 3 6:10 -4 1
L L D L
17 4 0 0 4 2:8 -6 0
L L L L
18 4 0 0 4 2:13 -11 0
L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)