BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
11.10.2026 14:30
Ticha

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cherno More Varna Win 26.3%
Draw 4.4%
Levski Sofia Win 69.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cherno More Varna1.01
Levski Sofia1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WWDLW
29 GF / 31 GA
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
WLDWL
53 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.63
10
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
15
4.9
Shots on Goal
3.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 23 matches
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 27 matches
Cherno More Varna Statistic Levski Sofia
8 Wins 17
6 Draws 7
9 Losses 3
29 Goals For 53
31 Goals Against 17
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.63
10 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 15
7 Failed To Score 6
4.9 Shots On Goal 3.72
10.2 Total Shots 10.39
5 Corners 4.17
51.6% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Levski Sofia's more proactive style and Cherno More Varna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Levski Sofia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Levski Sofia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 25 points while Cherno More Varna sit 13 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Levski Sofia.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

Cherno More Varna sit 13 with 6 points after 10 league matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 11:20 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Levski Sofia Analysis

Levski Sofia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 25 points after 9 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 21:4 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cherno More Varna won 5 times, Levski Sofia won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Cherno More Varna's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1 / Levski Sofia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cherno More Varna wins 5, draws 4, Levski Sofia wins 6

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
6 10 5 1 4 16:14 2 16
W W W L L
7 10 2 5 3 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
8 10 2 4 4 10:15 -5 10
L D D D L
9 10 2 3 5 9:19 -10 9
D D W L W
10 10 2 2 6 8:18 -10 8
L L L D W
11 10 1 4 5 11:18 -7 7
W L D L D
12 10 2 1 7 5:13 -8 7
D L W L L
13 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
14 10 1 2 7 10:19 -9 5
D L L D L
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