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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
16.05.2026 23:30
Bank of America Stadium
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Charlotte
Match Timeline
Toronto FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
W. Zaha · Assist: K. A. Calderon Vargas
Charlotte
⚽
22'
D. Etienne · Assist: J. Osorio
Toronto FC
VAR
30'
Jackson Gilman
Toronto FC
⚽
35'
D. Schnegg · Assist: K. A. Calderon Vargas
Charlotte
🟨
49'
Pep Biel
Charlotte
🟨
54'
Malik Henry
Toronto FC
🔄
58'
R. Edwards ↔ N. Gomis
Toronto FC
🔄
66'
B. Bronico ↔ D. Diani
Charlotte
🔄
66'
K. A. Calderon Vargas ↔ R. Aloko
Charlotte
🔄
75'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
75'
N. Byrne ↔ W. Cleary
Charlotte
🔄
78'
M. Henry ↔ F. Bank
Toronto FC
🟨
83'
Jonathan Osorio
Toronto FC
⚽
84'
P. Biel
Charlotte
🔄
87'
P. Biel ↔ L. de la Torre
Charlotte
🟨
90+2'
Ashley Westwood
Charlotte

Charlotte vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Charlotte Win 73%
Draw 9%
Toronto FC Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charlotte1.6
Toronto FC1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charlotte Charlotte
WWDLW
26 GF / 25 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
30 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
11
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
11
4.54
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charlotte Charlotte 17 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 17 matches
Charlotte Statistic Toronto FC
7 Wins 6
3 Draws 6
7 Losses 5
26 Goals For 30
25 Goals Against 29
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
11 BTTS Yes 13
12 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
4.54 Shots On Goal 4.75
10.46 Total Shots 11.83
4.62 Corners 6
48.2% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Charlotte have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toronto FC.

Charlotte Analysis

Charlotte approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 15 points from 12 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 20:21, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through P. Biel (6 goals), Idan Toklomati Jorno (4 goals), A. Goodwin (3 goals), with creative support from P. Biel (3 assists), L. Abada (2 assists), Idan Toklomati Jorno (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC sit 10 with 14 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 20:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Salloi (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), J. Sargent (2 goals), with creative support from D. Salloi (3 assists), K. Franklin (2 assists), D. Mihailovic (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Charlotte won 5 times, Toronto FC won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Charlotte's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: Charlotte 4-2-3-1 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Charlotte 2, Toronto FC 10
H2H summary: Charlotte wins 5, draws 2, Toronto FC wins 3

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 19 6 3 59:22 37 63
W W W D L
2 28 13 10 5 68:50 18 49
W L D D D
3 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
4 28 14 4 10 45:39 6 46
L L W W W
5 28 13 7 8 50:40 10 46
W L W D W
6 28 12 6 10 56:45 11 42
W W W W W
7 28 11 4 13 51:66 -15 37
W L L W W
8 28 10 6 12 38:52 -14 36
W L W W L
9 27 9 9 9 58:65 -7 36
W L D D L
10 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 27 6 12 9 34:46 -12 30
L D L D W
13 28 8 5 15 41:46 -5 29
L W W L L
14 28 7 6 15 33:48 -15 27
L D W D L
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)