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BRAZIL › SERIE A
12.10.2026 22:30
Arena Condá

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Chapecoense-sc Win 20.9%
Draw 4.6%
Atletico Paranaense Win 74.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chapecoense-sc1.13
Atletico Paranaense1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
44 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
20
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
15
3.44
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 29 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 30 matches
Chapecoense-sc Statistic Atletico Paranaense
4 Wins 14
10 Draws 7
15 Losses 9
32 Goals For 44
55 Goals Against 35
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
20 BTTS Yes 17
26 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 7
3.44 Shots On Goal 4.93
12.67 Total Shots 12.29
3.89 Corners 4.71
42.5% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 49 points while Chapecoense-sc sit 20 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chapecoense-sc expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Paranaense.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc sit 20 with 18 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 29:53, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Marcinho (5 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (4 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Marcinho (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 49 points after 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 43:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (18 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from João Cruz (5 assists), G. Benavídez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 1 times, Atletico Paranaense won 4 times, while 10 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:22 from Chapecoense-sc's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Chapecoense-sc wins 1, draws 10, Atletico Paranaense wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B