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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
16.07.2026 23:30
Saputo Stadium
Referee: G. J. Gonzalez
CF Montreal
Match Timeline
Toronto FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
60'
V. Loturi ↔ F. Herbers
CF Montreal
🔄
60'
S. Piette ↔ D. Pereira
CF Montreal
🔄
61'
K. Franklin ↔ J. Vilsaint
Toronto FC
🔄
62'
T. Corbeanu ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
🟨
64'
Daniel Pereira
CF Montreal
🟨
69'
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
🔄
74'
D. Etienne ↔ D. Mihailovic
Toronto FC
🔄
77'
D. Rios ↔ O. Graham-Roache
CF Montreal
🔄
88'
N. Streit ↔ O. Escobar
CF Montreal

CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 84.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
84.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
CF Montreal Win 68%
Draw 12.9%
Toronto FC Win 19.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
CF Montreal1.72
Toronto FC1.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
CF Montreal CF Montreal
WWDLW
32 GF / 42 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
32 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.68
2.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
11
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
13
4.93
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CF Montreal CF Montreal 19 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 19 matches
CF Montreal Statistic Toronto FC
6 Wins 6
2 Draws 6
11 Losses 7
32 Goals For 32
42 Goals Against 34
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
2.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
11 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
4.93 Shots On Goal 4.64
13.64 Total Shots 11.86
5.14 Corners 5.64
48.1% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Toronto FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CF Montreal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Toronto FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toronto FC having the stronger overall control. Toronto FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

CF Montreal Analysis

So far, CF Montreal have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 14 points from 14 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 22:31 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Owusu (9 goals), W. Carmona (4 goals), D. Rios (2 goals), with creative support from P. Owusu (4 assists), M. Longstaff (3 assists), W. Carmona (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without B. Hidalgo, W. Carmona, P. Owusu, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 14 points from 14 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 22:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Salloi (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), J. Sargent (3 goals), with creative support from D. Salloi (3 assists), A. Coello (3 assists), Jonathan Osorio (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Matheus Pereira, L. Stefanovic, H. Wingo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CF Montreal won 7 times, Toronto FC won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:27 from CF Montreal's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.1%)
Predicted formations: CF Montreal 4-3-3 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: CF Montreal 3, Toronto FC 7
H2H summary: CF Montreal wins 7, draws 4, Toronto FC wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
3 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
4 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
5 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
13 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)