URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Luis Troccoli
Referee: B. Sacarelo
Cerro
Match Timeline
Deportivo Maldonado
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
50'
Christian Tabó
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
57'
Matías Espíndola
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
61'
D. Suarez ↔ M. Arguello
Cerro
🔄
69'
M. Ocampo ↔ B. Morales
Cerro
🔄
69'
S. Tormo ↔ J. Fernandez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
76'
N. Soria ↔ S. Cristoforo
Cerro
🔄
76'
J. Guasone ↔ E. Sosa
Cerro
77'
N. Fuica
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
80'
Francisco Bregante
Cerro
🔄
83'
S. Ramirez ↔ S. Gonzalez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
83'
C. Tabo ↔ L. Nunez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
83'
R. Cesar ↔ A. Vila
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
85'
Emiliano Sosa
Cerro
🟨
88'
Brahian Alemán
Cerro
🟨
90+4'
Facundo Tealde
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
90'
M. Espindola ↔ E. Mozzone
Deportivo Maldonado

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 41%
Draw 4.6%
Deportivo Maldonado Win 54.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.83
Deportivo Maldonado1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
8 GF / 19 GA
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WLDWL
21 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.62
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
6
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 13 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 13 matches
Cerro Statistic Deportivo Maldonado
2 Wins 7
4 Draws 2
7 Losses 4
8 Goals For 21
19 Goals Against 15
0.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
6 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Maldonado. Deportivo Maldonado carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 23 points while Cerro sit 15 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Deportivo Maldonado in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Maldonado having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 13 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 8:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Pandiani (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), T. Correa (3 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Placed 2 with 23 points from 13 outings, Deportivo Maldonado continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 21:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. M. Noble Sequeira (6 goals), Christian Tabó (4 goals), M. Espindola (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 1 times, Deportivo Maldonado won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:11 from Cerro's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 3-4-1-2 / Deportivo Maldonado 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Cerro wins 1, draws 2, Deportivo Maldonado wins 5

Lineups

Cerro
Formation
Deportivo Maldonado
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
D. Suarez
D. Suarez
J. Guasone
J. Guasone
A. Lima
A. Lima
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
F. Bregante
F. Bregante
A. Miranda
A. Miranda
B. Aleman
B. Aleman
J. Amaro
J. Amaro
M. Ocampo
M. Ocampo
N. Soria
N. Soria
D. Segovia
D. Segovia
J. M. Ginzo
J. M. Ginzo
N. Fuica
N. Fuica
F. Tealde
F. Tealde
S. Tormo
S. Tormo
S. Ramirez
S. Ramirez
M. Gonzalez
M. Gonzalez
C. Tabo
C. Tabo
A. M. Noble Sequeira
A. M. Noble Sequeira
M. Espindola
M. Espindola
R. Cesar
R. Cesar
Cerro 5-3-2
Starting XI
25
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
G
22
D. Suarez
↓ 61'
D
16
J. Guasone
↓ 76'
D
3
A. Lima
D
17
G. Rodriguez
6
F. Bregante
🟨 80'
D
8
A. Miranda
M
10
B. Aleman
🟨 88'
M
31
J. Amaro
M
77
M. Ocampo
↓ 69'
M
14
N. Soria
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
12
Y. Irrazabal
G
23
M. Farias
D
4
M. Arguello
↑ 61'
D
41
S. Cristoforo
↑ 76'
M
19
E. Sosa
↑ 76' 🟨 85'
M
35
P. Nongoy
M
32
R. Mederos
M
28
A. Cambon
F
9
B. Morales
↑ 69'
F
27
C. Barros
M
Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-3
Starting XI
25
D. Segovia
G
4
J. M. Ginzo
D
33
N. Fuica
⚽ 77'
D
19
F. Tealde
🟨 90+4'
D
20
S. Tormo
↓ 69'
D
17
S. Ramirez
↓ 83'
M
8
M. Gonzalez
M
14
C. Tabo
↓ 83' 🟨 50'
F
10
A. M. Noble Sequeira
21
M. Espindola
↓ 90' 🟨 57'
M
16
R. Cesar
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Freitas
G
31
F. Marino
15
S. Gonzalez
↑ 83'
M
5
L. Nunez
↑ 83'
M
42
J. Fernandez
↑ 69'
D
11
G. Lopez
M
23
A. Vila
↑ 83'
M
32
H. Petryk
D
9
E. de Leon
F
29
E. Mozzone
↑ 90'
F
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
4
2
W
H2H: Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado
02.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.11.24
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
05.05.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
3
0
L
03.09.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
2
1
L
17.07.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
2
W
18.02.23
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
13.03.21
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
2
3
L
13.09.20
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
L
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Miramar
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
10.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cerro
02.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.11.24
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
18.02.23
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
13.03.21
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
2
3
L
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
4
2
W
H2H away: Deportivo Maldonado
02.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
W
08.11.24
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
18.02.23
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
13.03.21
H2H
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
2
3
W