URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: A. Fernandez
Cerro
Match Timeline
Central Espanol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
A. Cambon
Cerro
🟨
39'
B. Aleman
Cerro
🟨
41'
D. Suarez
Cerro
45'
A. Cambon
Cerro
🔄
52'
M. Alonso ↔ F. Sosa
Central Espanol
🟨
57'
T. Rijo
Cerro
🔄
59'
T. Rijo ↔ A. Severo
Cerro
🔄
63'
C. Barros ↔ P. Nongoy
Cerro
🔄
63'
A. Cambon ↔ S. Paiva
Cerro
🔄
68'
M. Urrutia ↔ F. Milan
Central Espanol
🔄
77'
M. Ocampo ↔ R. Mederos
Cerro
🔄
80'
L. Fernandez ↔ M. Cantera
Central Espanol
🔄
80'
M. Aguilera ↔ J. Dupont
Central Espanol
🔄
80'
I. Mendez ↔ R. Muniz
Central Espanol

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 42.5%
Draw 0%
Central Espanol Win 57.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.91
Central Espanol1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
9 GF / 28 GA
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WLDWL
25 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.56
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
7
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 16 matches
Central Espanol Central Espanol 16 matches
Cerro Statistic Central Espanol
2 Wins 8
4 Draws 3
10 Losses 5
9 Goals For 25
28 Goals Against 23
0.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
7 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Central Espanol's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Central Espanol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 24 points while Cerro sit 16 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Central Espanol having the stronger overall control. Cerro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Central Espanol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Cerro Analysis

With 10 points from 15 games and a place of 16, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 8:24 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Central Espanol Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 15 outings, Central Espanol continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, while the 23:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Tarragona (6 goals), F. Munoz (3 goals), I. Rodriguez (3 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 4 times, Central Espanol won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from Cerro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 5-3-2 / Central Espanol -
H2H summary: Cerro wins 4, draws 1, Central Espanol wins 3

Lineups

Cerro
Formation
Central Espanol
Y. Irrazabal
Y. Irrazabal
A. Macelli
A. Macelli
D. Suarez
D. Suarez
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
A. Lima
A. Lima
J. Amaro
J. Amaro
C. Barros
C. Barros
B. Aleman
B. Aleman
T. Rijo
T. Rijo
M. Ocampo
M. Ocampo
A. Cambon
A. Cambon
Rodolfo
Rodolfo
L. Fernandez
L. Fernandez
M. Urrutia
M. Urrutia
A. Villoldo
A. Villoldo
Cesar Nunes
Cesar Nunes
I. Mendez
I. Mendez
F. Munoz
F. Munoz
M. Montiel
M. Montiel
M. Alonso
M. Alonso
M. Aguilera
M. Aguilera
S. Sequeira
S. Sequeira
Cerro 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
Y. Irrazabal
5
A. Macelli
22
D. Suarez
🟨 41'
17
G. Rodriguez
3
A. Lima
31
J. Amaro
27
C. Barros
↓ 63'
10
B. Aleman
🟨 39'
33
T. Rijo
↓ 59' 🟨 57'
77
M. Ocampo
↓ 77'
28
A. Cambon
⚽ 45' ↓ 63' 🟨 36'
Substitutes
25
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
4
M. Arguello
16
J. Guasone
19
E. Sosa
6
F. Bregante
41
S. Cristoforo
32
R. Mederos
↑ 77'
35
P. Nongoy
↑ 63'
29
S. Paiva
↑ 63'
7
A. Severo
↑ 59'
Central Espanol 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
39
Rodolfo
17
L. Fernandez
↓ 80'
6
M. Urrutia
↓ 68'
14
A. Villoldo
26
Cesar Nunes
16
I. Mendez
↓ 80'
7
F. Munoz
4
M. Montiel
30
M. Alonso
↓ 52'
32
M. Aguilera
↓ 80'
19
S. Sequeira
Substitutes
12
E. Marquez
15
M. Cantera
↑ 80'
3
J. Dupont
↑ 80'
28
S. Sanchez
21
L. Pino
23
I. Gonella
18
F. Yocco
10
R. Muniz
↑ 80'
27
F. Sosa
↑ 52'
25
F. Milan
↑ 68'
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
Last matches: Central Espanol
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Juventud
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Progreso
3
0
W
H2H: Cerro vs Central Espanol
24.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
26.04.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
L
05.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
2
0
W
14.05.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
1
2
W
28.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
0
D
16.06.21
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
2
L
18.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
2
W
25.11.12
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
2
L
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Miramar
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
10.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cerro
24.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
05.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
2
0
W
28.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
0
D
25.11.12
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
2
L
Last matches: Central Espanol
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Juventud
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Progreso
3
0
W
H2H away: Central Espanol
24.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
L
05.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
2
0
L
28.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
0
D
25.11.12
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
2
W