URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Luis Troccoli
Referee: D. Rodriguez
Cerro
Match Timeline
Atletico Torque
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
Francisco Bregante
Cerro
🔄
58'
R. Lecchini ↔ L. Andrade
Atletico Torque
🔄
64'
D. Suarez ↔ M. Arguello
Cerro
🔄
64'
A. Cambon ↔ P. Nongoy
Cerro
🔄
64'
B. Quinteros ↔ S. Cristoforo
Cerro
🟨
66'
Gianni Rodríguez
Cerro
🟨
66'
Esteban Obregón
Atletico Torque
🟨
72'
Gary Kagelmacher
Atletico Torque
🔄
76'
G. Kagelmacher ↔ D. Guzman
Atletico Torque
🔄
77'
G. Rodriguez ↔ A. Lima
Cerro
🔄
77'
R. Mederos ↔ C. Barros
Cerro
88'
A. Macelli
Cerro
🟨
89'
Franco Romero
Atletico Torque
🟨
90+6'
Diogo Guzmán
Atletico Torque
🔄
90'
E. Aguero ↔ J. Quintana
Atletico Torque
🔄
90'
G. Montes ↔ N. Da Silva
Atletico Torque
90'
E. Obregon
Atletico Torque

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 35.6%
Draw 9.7%
Atletico Torque Win 54.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.77
Atletico Torque1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
6 GF / 15 GA
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
WLDWL
14 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.55
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 11 matches
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 11 matches
Cerro Statistic Atletico Torque
2 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
6 Goals For 14
15 Goals Against 12
0.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
4 BTTS Yes 5
6 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atletico Torque's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Torque. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Atletico Torque in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Torque having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Atletico Torque arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro sit 14 with 9 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 6:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (3 goals), Alejo Macelli (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Torque Analysis

Atletico Torque approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 15 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 14:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Salomón Rodríguez (6 goals), E. Obregon (2 goals), A. Garcia (1 goals), with creative support from Gonzalo Montes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 1 times, Atletico Torque won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:12 from Cerro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.11 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 5-3-2 / Atletico Torque 4-3-3
H2H summary: Cerro wins 1, draws 4, Atletico Torque wins 4

Lineups

Cerro
Formation
Atletico Torque
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
J. Guasone
J. Guasone
A. Macelli
A. Macelli
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
D. Suarez
D. Suarez
R. Mederos
R. Mederos
B. Quinteros
B. Quinteros
F. Bregante
F. Bregante
B. Aleman
B. Aleman
B. Morales
B. Morales
A. Cambon
A. Cambon
F. Torgnascioli
F. Torgnascioli
E. Aguero
E. Aguero
F. Romero
F. Romero
G. Kagelmacher
G. Kagelmacher
K. Silva
K. Silva
F. Silvera
F. Silvera
P. Siles
P. Siles
G. Montes
G. Montes
E. Obregon
E. Obregon
S. Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
R. Lecchini
R. Lecchini
Cerro 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
25
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
G
16
J. Guasone
D
5
A. Macelli
⚽ 88'
M
17
G. Rodriguez
↓ 77'
22
D. Suarez
↓ 64'
D
32
R. Mederos
↓ 77'
M
13
B. Quinteros
↓ 64'
M
6
F. Bregante
🟨 44'
D
10
B. Aleman
M
9
B. Morales
F
28
A. Cambon
↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
40
D. Capdevila
G
4
M. Arguello
↑ 64'
D
3
A. Lima
↑ 77'
D
24
I. Valenzuela
D
14
N. Soria
F
33
T. Rijo
27
C. Barros
↑ 77'
M
35
P. Nongoy
↑ 64'
M
7
A. Severo
F
41
S. Cristoforo
↑ 64'
M
Atletico Torque 5-2-3
Starting XI
1
F. Torgnascioli
G
17
E. Aguero
↓ 90'
D
2
F. Romero
🟨 89'
D
24
G. Kagelmacher
↓ 76' 🟨 72'
D
3
K. Silva
D
26
F. Silvera
D
8
P. Siles
M
20
G. Montes
↓ 90'
M
10
E. Obregon
⚽ 90' 🟨 66'
M
9
S. Rodriguez
F
18
R. Lecchini
↓ 58'
F
Substitutes
13
G. Rodriguez
G
27
J. Taran
D
14
B. Kociubinski
M
19
D. Guzman
↑ 76' 🟨 90+6'
M
23
L. Dure
M
32
S. Caceres
M
7
L. Andrade
↑ 58'
M
30
J. Quintana
↑ 90'
M
11
N. Da Silva
↑ 90'
F
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Torque
06.06.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
4
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
2
3
L
24.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Central Espanol
2
1
W
16.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
26.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
4
0
W
17.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Penarol
1
3
L
09.11.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Penarol
0
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
5
0
W
H2H: Cerro vs Atletico Torque
19.04.26
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
18.10.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
2
W
20.04.25
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
18.11.23
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
0
L
16.04.23
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
0
2
L
31.01.21
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
3
L
07.03.20
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
1
D
21.10.18
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro
0
0
D
21.04.18
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Miramar
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
10.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cerro
19.04.26
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
20.04.25
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.04.23
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
0
2
L
31.01.21
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
3
L
21.04.18
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Torque
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
1
D
24.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
4
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Penarol
1
3
L
01.11.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
5
0
W
24.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.09.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
0
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
1
0
W
31.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Plaza Colonia
4
2
W
17.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
CA River Plate
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
2
5
L
H2H away: Atletico Torque
19.04.26
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
20.04.25
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
2
W
16.04.23
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
0
2
W
31.01.21
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
3
W
21.04.18
H2H
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D