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07.08.2026 22:00
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Referee: Leondro Nicolas Lasso Gonzalez, Uruguay
Cerro Largo
Match Timeline
Juventud
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
A. Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🟨
39'
Axel Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🟨
43'
Martín Cáceres
Juventud
🔄
46'
M. Caceres ↔ E. Mas
Juventud
🔄
46'
A. Alaniz ↔ B. Arady
Juventud
🔄
64'
D. Daguerre ↔ E. de Leon
Cerro Largo
🔄
64'
G. Viera ↔ A. de Luca
Cerro Largo
🔄
64'
R. Chagas ↔ F. Mimbacas
Juventud
🟨
72'
Alexis Piegas
Cerro Largo
🔄
74'
B. Larregui ↔ G. Gomez
Juventud
⚽
76'
G. Pereiro
Juventud
🔄
78'
A. Pandiani ↔ Pipe
Cerro Largo
🔄
81'
R. Peralta ↔ F. Perez
Juventud
🟨
90'
Santiago Franca
Cerro Largo

Cerro Largo vs Juventud Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.9%
- ▥
BTTS No
55%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 44.9%
Draw 15.9%
Juventud Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1.21
Juventud1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WWDLW
23 GF / 24 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
33 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
7
BTTS Yes
18
8
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 22 matches
Juventud Juventud 28 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Juventud
8 Wins 8
4 Draws 7
10 Losses 13
23 Goals For 33
24 Goals Against 41
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
7 BTTS Yes 18
13 Over 1.5 19
8 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 4.33
0 Total Shots 13.5
0 Corners 4.33
0% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Juventud in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Juventud. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo are currently 10 in the standings with 28 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 23:24 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Juventud Analysis

So far, Juventud have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 23 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, while the 25:33 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 6 times, Juventud won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:12 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-3-3 / Juventud 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cerro Largo wins 6, draws 2, Juventud wins 4

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)