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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
11.10.2026 20:00
Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.2%
- ▥
BTTS No
82.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
88%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Central Norte Win 26.5%
Draw 14.3%
Ferro Carril Oeste Win 59.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Central Norte0.72
Ferro Carril Oeste1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Central Norte Central Norte
WWDLW
21 GF / 30 GA
Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste
WLDWL
36 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.64
Average Goals Scored
1.13
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
13
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Central Norte Central Norte 33 matches
Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste 32 matches
Central Norte Statistic Ferro Carril Oeste
6 Wins 18
16 Draws 7
11 Losses 7
21 Goals For 36
30 Goals Against 27
0.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
13 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 17
7 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 15
16 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ferro Carril Oeste's more proactive style and Central Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ferro Carril Oeste. Ferro Carril Oeste carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 61 points while Central Norte sit 15 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferro Carril Oeste having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Central Norte Analysis

With 33 points from 32 games and a place of 15, Central Norte still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 15 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 20:29, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ferro Carril Oeste Analysis

Ferro Carril Oeste arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 61 points after 32 matches. Their overall return of 18 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 36:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Central Norte won 0 times, Ferro Carril Oeste won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Central Norte's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
H2H summary: Central Norte wins 0, draws 0, Ferro Carril Oeste wins 1

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 7 7 36:27 9 61
L W W D D
2 32 17 7 8 51:32 19 58
W L L W W
3 32 16 8 8 42:29 13 56
W D W W W
4 32 14 11 7 46:28 18 53
W D W L W
5 32 14 10 8 39:25 14 52
W D W L L
6 32 12 10 10 25:21 4 46
L L L D D
7 32 12 9 11 29:27 2 45
L W W W L
8 32 11 12 9 27:28 -1 45
W W L D L
9 32 9 13 10 25:23 2 40
L W L D D
10 32 9 10 13 30:33 -3 37
D L W D W
11 32 8 13 11 25:29 -4 37
D L W W D
12 32 9 10 13 28:36 -8 37
W W L W D
13 32 9 10 13 29:39 -10 37
D D L L L
14 32 7 14 11 29:39 -10 35
W L L D D
15 32 6 15 11 20:29 -9 33
D D L D D
16 32 6 15 11 18:28 -10 33
L D D L W
17 32 6 13 13 25:38 -13 31
L L D D L
18 32 7 8 17 22:35 -13 29
L W W L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation