BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Ceilândia
Match Timeline
Luverdense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
Pedro Bortoluzo
Luverdense
15'
Marquinho
Ceilândia
46'
D. Borges
Luverdense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 70.6%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
70.6%
1.44
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.72
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.61
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Ceilândia Win 29.4%
Draw 29.9%
Luverdense Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceilândia0.94
Luverdense1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceilândia Ceilândia
WWDLW
9 GF / 10 GA
Luverdense Luverdense
WLDWL
11 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceilândia Ceilândia 10 matches
Luverdense Luverdense 10 matches
Ceilândia Statistic Luverdense
3 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
4 Losses 3
9 Goals For 11
10 Goals Against 10
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Luverdense's more proactive style and Ceilândia's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Luverdense. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Luverdense having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ceilândia Analysis

Ceilândia enter this tie with a season profile built on 12 points from 10 matches, placing them 3 in their league. The return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 9:10 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Julen (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

Luverdense Analysis

Luverdense come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 15 points from 10 matches. The return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 11:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Pedro Bortoluzo (4 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ceilândia won 1 times, Luverdense won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Ceilândia's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (70.6%)
H2H summary: Ceilândia wins 1, draws 1, Luverdense wins 1
Last matches: Ceilândia
07.06.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
União Rondonópolis
3
2
W
16.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
CEOV Operário
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Barra
0
1
L
16.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Barra
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Água Santa
1
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Água Santa
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goianésia
2
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiânia
2
2
D
13.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
2
2
D
05.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
2
1
W
14.06.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Aparecidense
0
2
L
Last matches: Luverdense
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
14.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
W
31.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
4
L
H2H: Ceilândia vs Luverdense
20.06.26
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
2
L
05.07.25
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
2
D
Last matches: Ceilândia
30.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
CEOV Operário
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Barra
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Água Santa
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goianésia
2
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
2
1
W
07.06.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Porto Velho
3
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Aparecidense
2
3
L
03.05.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiânia
1
0
W
H2H at home: Ceilândia
20.06.26
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
2
L
05.07.25
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
W
Last matches: Luverdense
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
4
L
18.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
0
2
L
03.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
H2H away: Luverdense
20.06.26
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
2
W
05.07.25
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.92
Draw 2.65
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.34
Over 1.5 1.52
Over 1.75 1.69
Over 2.0 2.02
Over 2.25 2.38
Over 2.5 2.72
Over 2.75 3.31
Under 1.25 2.95
Under 1.5 2.37
Under 1.75 2.07
Under 2.0 1.75
Under 2.25 1.53
Under 2.5 1.40
Under 2.75 1.28
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.70
Home 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 1.83
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.10
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.53
Over 2.5 2.62
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 5.50
Under 1.5 2.38
Under 2.5 1.44
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.86
Draw 2.64
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.07
Draw 1.73
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 2.07
Home 2.96
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.0 1.15
Over 1.25 1.33
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 1.75 1.66
Over 2.0 1.94
Over 2.25 2.26
Over 2.5 2.65
Over 2.75 3.14
Over 3.0 4.25
Over 3.25 4.65
Over 3.5 5.05
Over 4.0 8.70
Over 4.5 13.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 5.45
Under 1.0 4.30
Under 1.25 2.83
Under 1.5 2.28
Under 1.75 1.99
Under 2.0 1.70
Under 2.25 1.51
Under 2.5 1.41
Under 2.75 1.27
Under 3.0 1.15
Under 3.25 1.12
Under 3.5 1.10
Under 4.0 1.01
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.43
Draw 2.80
Home 2.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 1.98
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.20
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.43
Over 2.5 2.43
Over 3.5 4.40
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.45
Under 3.5 1.15

Standings

Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)