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BRAZIL › SERIE C
17.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Francisco Stedile
Referee: W. Souza
Caxias
Match Timeline
Paysandu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Kleiton Pego
Paysandu
🟨
16'
Thayllon
Paysandu
⚽
23'
Calyson
Caxias
🔄
27'
Matheus Nunes ↔ Breno Santos
Caxias
🟨
41'
Henrico
Paysandu
🔄
46'
Henrico ↔ Brian Macapa
Paysandu
🔄
52'
Felipe Albuquerque ↔ Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
58'
Thayllon ↔ Thalyson
Paysandu
🔄
60'
Grigor ↔ Mancha
Caxias
🔄
60'
Calyson ↔ Jhonatan Ribeiro
Caxias
🔄
60'
Ravanelli ↔ Marcelo Freitas
Caxias
🔄
68'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Juninho
Paysandu
⚽
73'
Salatiel
Caxias
🟨
78'
Kleiton Pego
Paysandu
🟥
78'
Kleiton Pego
Paysandu
🔄
83'
Marcinho ↔ Tiago Indio
Paysandu
🔄
83'
Italo Carvalho ↔ Lucas Cardoso
Paysandu

Caxias vs Paysandu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 31.7%
Draw 11.2%
Paysandu Win 57.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias0.9
Paysandu1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
5 GF / 5 GA
Paysandu Paysandu
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
2.17
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
5
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 6 matches
Paysandu Paysandu 6 matches
Caxias Statistic Paysandu
2 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 0
5 Goals For 13
5 Goals Against 6
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 5
3 Over 1.5 5
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Paysandu's more proactive style and Caxias's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paysandu. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paysandu having the stronger overall control. Paysandu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 14 points while Caxias sit 12 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Caxias Analysis

So far, Caxias have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 8 points from 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 5:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Salatiel (2 goals), Calyson (1 goals), Joao Lucas (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 14 points after 6 matches. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:6, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Kleiton Pego (4 goals), Italo Carvalho (3 goals), Juninho (3 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 1 times, Paysandu won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:0 from Caxias's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 1, draws 0, Paysandu wins 0

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W D D L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D D L D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W L D W W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W D D W L
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D D L W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D W D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D W L D L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
L D D W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation