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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
03.05.2026 14:30
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Referee: A. Narciso
Casa Pia
Match Timeline
Tondela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
49'
Jérémy Livolant
Casa Pia
🟨
51'
Rafael Brito
Casa Pia
VAR
53'
Cassiano
Casa Pia
🟥
55'
Cassiano
Casa Pia
🔄
57'
J. Marques ↔ D. Livramento
Casa Pia
🔄
58'
R. Brito ↔ L. Ofori
Casa Pia
VAR
64'
Tiago Manso
Tondela
🟨
65'
André Geraldes
Casa Pia
🔄
65'
Cicero ↔ Bebeto
Tondela
🔄
65'
T. Manso ↔ H. Tavares
Tondela
⚽
68'
Bebeto
Tondela
🟨
70'
Maranhão
Tondela
🔄
72'
A. Geraldes ↔ T. Morais
Casa Pia
🟨
75'
Christian Marques
Tondela
🟨
85'
Tiago Morais
Casa Pia
🔄
86'
A. Conte ↔ Kiki
Casa Pia
🔄
86'
G. Larrazabal ↔ K. Prieto
Casa Pia
🔄
86'
Pedro Maranhao ↔ S. Sithole
Tondela
🔄
86'
Rony Lopes ↔ A. van der Heide
Tondela
🟨
90+11'
Jérémy Livolant
Casa Pia
🟨
90+9'
Kevin Prieto
Casa Pia
🟨
90+8'
João Goulart
Casa Pia
🟨
90'
Iyad Mohamed
Casa Pia
🟥
90+11'
Jérémy Livolant
Casa Pia
🟨
90+9'
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
Tondela
🔄
90+5'
M. Aiko ↔ B. Kimpioka
Tondela

Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Casa Pia Win 46.2%
Draw 23.4%
Tondela Win 30.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Casa Pia1.24
Tondela1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WWDLW
29 GF / 55 GA
Tondela Tondela
WLDWL
23 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
0.74
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
15
BTTS Yes
11
15
Over 2.5
16
2.74
Shots on Goal
3.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Casa Pia Casa Pia 31 matches
Tondela Tondela 31 matches
Casa Pia Statistic Tondela
5 Wins 4
11 Draws 10
15 Losses 17
29 Goals For 23
55 Goals Against 52
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 0.74
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
15 BTTS Yes 11
25 Over 1.5 21
15 Over 2.5 16
10 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 5
14 Failed To Score 18
2.74 Shots On Goal 3.39
8.61 Total Shots 10.48
3.77 Corners 4.06
41.5% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tondela. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Casa Pia expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Tondela in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tondela having the stronger overall control.

Casa Pia Analysis

Casa Pia sit 16 with 26 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 15 defeats with a 29:55 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cassiano (6 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tondela Analysis

With 22 points from 31 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 23:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (2 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia won 1 times, Tondela won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Casa Pia's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.6%)
Predicted formations: Casa Pia 3-4-3 / Tondela 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Casa Pia wins 1, draws 0, Tondela wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2