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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
26.09.2026 14:00
Memorial Stadium
Bristol Rovers
Match Timeline
Exeter City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
Gwion Edwards
Exeter City
🟨
40'
Steve Evans
Bristol Rovers
🟨
60'
Ellis Harrison
Bristol Rovers
🔄
64'
Shaqai Forde ↔ Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny
Bristol Rovers
⚽
66'
Fabrizio Cavegn
Bristol Rovers
🔄
68'
Jack Paul Taylor ↔ Andrew Jose Oluwabori
Exeter City
🔄
77'
Gwion Edwards ↔ George Birch
Exeter City
🔄
79'
Ellis Harrison ↔ Joe Quigley
Bristol Rovers
🔄
85'
Jake Doyle Hayes ↔ Josh Gordon
Exeter City
🔄
89'
Fabrizio Cavegn ↔ Bobby Kamwa
Bristol Rovers
🔄
90'
Jack Sparkes ↔ Ben Purrington
Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.72
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.3%
1.72 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.1%
1.95 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
8.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Bristol Rovers Win 76.3%
Draw 5%
Exeter City Win 18.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bristol Rovers1.43
Exeter City1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers
WWDLW
22 GF / 18 GA
Exeter City Exeter City
WLDWL
8 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
0.73
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
6
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
2
4.71
Shots on Goal
2.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 12 matches
Exeter City Exeter City 11 matches
Bristol Rovers Statistic Exeter City
6 Wins 2
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
22 Goals For 8
18 Goals Against 9
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
6 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 6
7 Over 2.5 2
4 Over 3.5 0
4 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
4.71 Shots On Goal 2.86
16.29 Total Shots 10.86
6.14 Corners 4.57
46% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bristol Rovers's more proactive style and Exeter City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Exeter City. Bristol Rovers arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 12 points compared to Exeter City in 20 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bristol Rovers come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Bristol Rovers Analysis

Bristol Rovers come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 12 points after 6 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a 12:8 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on B. Kamwa (2 goals), F. Cavegn (2 goals), T. James (1 goals), with creative support from T. James (1 assists), Brad Young (1 assists), K. Balmer (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Exeter City Analysis

With 5 points from 6 games and a place of 20, Exeter City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:5 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Fitzwater (2 goals), with creative support from L. Woodhouse (1 assists), Andrew Oluwabori (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bristol Rovers won 4 times, Exeter City won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:31 from Bristol Rovers's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Bristol Rovers 4-2-3-1 / Exeter City 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bristol Rovers wins 4, draws 3, Exeter City wins 8

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3 9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League