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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
03.05.2026 13:15
Stadion Hristo Botev
Referee: V. Mitrev
Botev Plovdiv
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
13'
Emerson Rodríguez
Botev Plovdiv
⚽
18'
J. Zwarts · Assist: C. Itu
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
24'
N. Iliev ↔ Mascote
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
35'
T. Nedelev ↔ W. Chimezie
Botev Plovdiv
🟨
39'
Samuel Kalu
Botev Plovdiv
🟨
61'
Enock Kwateng
Botev Plovdiv
🟨
65'
Lucas Araujo
Botev Plovdiv
🟨
67'
Sevi Idriz
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
70'
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
73'
G. B. Chorbadzhiyski ↔ M. Trdan
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
73'
S. Idriz ↔ Z. Dinev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
83'
E. Kwateng ↔ Z. Tindano
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
83'
Lucas Araujo ↔ E. Martinho da Silva
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
84'
C. Itu ↔ J. Lamy
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
85'
Zapro Dinev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
90+9'
Konstantinos Balogiannis
Botev Plovdiv
🔄
90+4'
I. Ivanov ↔ M. Atanasov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
90+4'
J. Zwarts ↔ Francisco Politino
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
⚽
90'
J. Zwarts
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
90.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botev Plovdiv Win 60.5%
Draw 6.4%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botev Plovdiv1.16
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv
WWDLW
38 GF / 37 GA
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WLDWL
30 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1
16
BTTS Yes
14
17
Over 2.5
9
3.64
Shots on Goal
2.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 30 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30 matches
Botev Plovdiv Statistic Lokomotiv Plovdiv
11 Wins 11
7 Draws 13
12 Losses 6
38 Goals For 30
37 Goals Against 30
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1
16 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 8
3.64 Shots On Goal 2.85
10.11 Total Shots 7.81
3.96 Corners 2.74
39.8% Ball Possession 33.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Botev Plovdiv's more proactive style and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Botev Plovdiv come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Botev Plovdiv Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Botev Plovdiv have collected 43 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 42:37 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Okoflex (8 goals), Mascote (8 goals), N. Minkov (4 goals), with creative support from A. Okoflex (6 assists), N. Minkov (6 assists), Todor Nedelev (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have collected 46 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 13 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 30:34 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Perea (7 goals), Lucas Ryan (4 goals), Adrián Cova (3 goals), with creative support from Cătălin Itu (5 assists), Parvizdzhon Umarbaev (5 assists), J. Lamy (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botev Plovdiv won 4 times, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:19 from Botev Plovdiv's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botev Plovdiv wins 4, draws 6, Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 5

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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