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14.08.2026 22:00
Estadio Campeones Olimpicos
Referee: Javier Feres, Uruguay
Boston River
Match Timeline
Danubio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
42'
Mateo Rivero
Boston River
🔄
58'
N. Siri ↔ F. Bonfiglio
Boston River
🟨
69'
Iván Rossi
Danubio
🔄
69'
E. Cabrera ↔ B. Pereira
Danubio
🔄
69'
B. Tomatis ↔ D. Piriz
Danubio
🔄
69'
John Kleber ↔ H. Silveira
Danubio
🔄
71'
A. Velazquez ↔ E. Figueroa
Danubio
🔄
74'
F. Aristegui ↔ Y. Gonzalez
Boston River
🔄
77'
M. Peralta ↔ L. Sosa
Danubio
🔄
82'
F. Munoa ↔ A. Lima
Boston River
🔄
82'
L. Vazquez ↔ A. Fernandez
Boston River
🟨
84'
Luis Femia
Danubio
🟨
90+1'
Mauro Brasil
Danubio

Boston River vs Danubio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.5%
- ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Boston River Win 69.5%
Draw 14.2%
Danubio Win 16.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boston River1.09
Danubio1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boston River Boston River
WWDLW
21 GF / 31 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
22 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boston River Boston River 23 matches
Danubio Danubio 23 matches
Boston River Statistic Danubio
7 Wins 4
4 Draws 10
12 Losses 9
21 Goals For 22
31 Goals Against 31
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
10 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boston River expected to line up in 4-3-2-1 and Danubio in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Danubio having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Danubio. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Boston River have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Boston River Analysis

With 22 points from 22 games and a place of 14, Boston River still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 12 defeats with a 19:30 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Danubio Analysis

So far, Danubio have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 22 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 22:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Boston River won 4 times, Danubio won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:13 from Boston River's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
Predicted formations: Boston River 4-3-2-1 / Danubio 4-4-2
H2H summary: Boston River wins 4, draws 7, Danubio wins 4

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)