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FRANCE › LIGUE 3
01.10.2026 18:45
Stade Armand Cesari
Bastia
Match Timeline
Orleans
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
L. Belal
Bastia
🟨
12'
I. Drame
Orleans
🟨
27'
L. Raillot
Orleans
🟨
42'
C. Melieres
Bastia
🔄
46'
R. Beliandjou ↔ N. Alebate
Bastia
🟨
58'
N. Zilliox
Bastia
🔄
62'
M. Prunier ↔ A. Ribeiro
Orleans
🔄
64'
H. Makalou ↔ D. Diarra
Bastia
⚽
66'
C. Melieres
Bastia
🟨
68'
B. Dali-Amar
Orleans
🔄
70'
L. Raillot ↔ G. Khous
Orleans
🔄
76'
C. Melieres ↔ M. Petrignani
Bastia
🟨
83'
T. De Percin
Bastia
🟨
84'
S. Contena
Bastia
🟨
86'
I. Monnier
Bastia
🟨
86'
A. Roncaglia
Bastia
⚽
87'
R. Legendre
Orleans
🔄
89'
C. Rodrigues ↔ M. Boumaaoui
Bastia
🔄
89'
L. Belal ↔ D. Tamba
Bastia
🟥
90+8'
N. Zilliox
Bastia
🟨
90+10'
J. Eickmayer
Bastia

Bastia vs Orleans Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.7%
Odds 3.20
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.17
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.7%
3.20 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.17 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Bastia Win 17.1%
Draw 7.1%
Orleans Win 75.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bastia1.1
Orleans1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bastia Bastia
WWDLW
10 GF / 16 GA
Orleans Orleans
WLDWL
11 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
4
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bastia Bastia 10 matches
Orleans Orleans 12 matches
Bastia Statistic Orleans
3 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
5 Losses 6
10 Goals For 11
16 Goals Against 15
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
4 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Orleans having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Orleans arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Orleans. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Bastia Analysis

So far, Bastia have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 10 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 6:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orleans Analysis

Orleans sit 14 with 7 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 6:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Bastia won 0 times, Orleans won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Bastia's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
H2H summary: Bastia wins 0, draws 1, Orleans wins 1

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 15:8 7 21
W W W D D
2 9 6 2 1 17:5 12 20
W L W W D
3 9 4 4 1 12:8 4 16
W D W W D
4 9 5 1 3 13:12 1 16
W W D W L
5 9 4 3 2 12:3 9 15
W D W D W
6 9 3 6 0 11:4 7 15
W D D D W
7 9 5 0 4 17:12 5 15
L W L W W
8 9 4 1 4 11:9 2 13
W L W L D
9 9 3 3 3 14:14 0 12
L L D L D
10 9 3 3 3 15:12 3 12
W L D W W
11 9 3 3 3 7:9 -2 12
L W D L D
12 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
D L D W L
13 9 2 4 3 8:12 -4 10
L D D W D
14 9 2 3 4 7:11 -4 9
D D L L D
15 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L W L L D
16 9 2 1 6 6:12 -6 7
L W L L D
17 9 1 2 6 5:15 -10 5
L D D L L
18 9 1 1 7 7:22 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation