Login Register
SPAIN › LA LIGA
10.05.2026 19:00
Camp Nou
Referee: A. Hernandez
Barcelona
Match Timeline
Real Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
M. Rashford
Barcelona
⚽
18'
F. Torres · Assist: D. Olmo
Barcelona
🟨
40'
Eduardo Camavinga
Real Madrid
🟨
52'
Dani Olmo
Barcelona
🟨
52'
Raúl Asencio
Real Madrid
🟨
55'
Jude Bellingham
Real Madrid
🔄
64'
D. Olmo ↔ F. de Jong
Barcelona
🔄
64'
M. Rashford ↔ Raphinha
Barcelona
🔄
70'
E. Camavinga ↔ T. Pitarch
Real Madrid
🔄
77'
F. Torres ↔ R. Lewandowski
Barcelona
🔄
77'
Gavi ↔ M. Bernal
Barcelona
🔄
79'
B. Diaz ↔ F. Mastantuono
Real Madrid
🔄
79'
G. Garcia ↔ C. Palacios
Real Madrid
🟨
81'
Raphinha
Barcelona
🟨
81'
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Real Madrid
🔄
88'
Fermín ↔ A. Balde
Barcelona

Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Barcelona Win 67.4%
Draw 0%
Real Madrid Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Barcelona1.98
Real Madrid1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Barcelona Barcelona
WWDLW
130 GF / 56 GA
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WLDWL
108 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
2.55
Average Goals Scored
2.16
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
31
BTTS Yes
31
39
Over 2.5
33
7.02
Shots on Goal
6.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Barcelona Barcelona 51 matches
Real Madrid Real Madrid 50 matches
Barcelona Statistic Real Madrid
40 Wins 34
3 Draws 5
8 Losses 11
130 Goals For 108
56 Goals Against 56
2.55 Avg Goals Scored 2.16
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
31 BTTS Yes 31
48 Over 1.5 43
39 Over 2.5 33
20 Over 3.5 16
17 Clean Sheets 16
3 Failed To Score 4
7.02 Shots On Goal 6.94
18.39 Total Shots 18.02
6.78 Corners 6.46
68% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Barcelona expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Real Madrid in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Real Madrid having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Barcelona come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Madrid.

Barcelona Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 88 points from 34 games, Barcelona bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 29 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 89:31, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Lamine Yamal (16 goals), F. Torres (15 goals), R. Lewandowski (13 goals), with creative support from Lamine Yamal (11 assists), F. Lopez (9 assists), M. Rashford (8 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 17 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Real Madrid Analysis

Real Madrid come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 77 points from 34 matches. The record of 24 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 70:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Mbappe (24 goals), Vinícius Júnior (15 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (9 assists), F. Valverde (8 assists), Vinícius Júnior (5 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Barcelona won 10 times, Real Madrid won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 36:26 from Barcelona's perspective. 14 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Barcelona 4-2-3-1 / Real Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Barcelona 2, Real Madrid 8
H2H summary: Barcelona wins 10, draws 0, Real Madrid wins 5

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2