BRAZIL SERIE A
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Arena Fonte Nova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.8%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 83.8%
Draw 5.2%
Internacional Win 11%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.33
Internacional1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
40 GF / 33 GA
Internacional Internacional
WLDWL
24 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
17
BTTS Yes
13
13
Over 2.5
8
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 28 matches
Internacional Internacional 24 matches
Bahia Statistic Internacional
11 Wins 5
10 Draws 10
7 Losses 9
40 Goals For 24
33 Goals Against 28
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
17 BTTS Yes 13
23 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 8
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.38
13.69 Total Shots 14.29
5.5 Corners 6.21
53.7% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bahia's more proactive style and Internacional's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 34 points compared to Internacional in 16 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Internacional. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Internacional in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Internacional having the stronger overall control.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia are currently 6 in the standings with 34 points from 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 32:28 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Internacional Analysis

Internacional sit 16 with 24 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 24:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking burden often falls on Johan Carbonero (6 goals), Alexandro Bernabei (4 goals), Alerrandro (3 goals), with creative support from Johan Carbonero (3 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 3 times, Internacional won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:23 from Bahia's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 3-1-4-2 / Internacional 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Bahia wins 3, draws 4, Internacional wins 8
Last matches: Bahia
23.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
09.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
30.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
Last matches: Internacional
22.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
17.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Remo
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Palmeiras
0
0
D
29.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Flamengo
1
1
D
25.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
23.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Internacional
RB Bragantino
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Vitoria
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Vasco DA Gama
4
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Coritiba
2
2
D
03.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Fluminense
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Botafogo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Mirassol
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Gremio
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Corinthians
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Santos
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Bahia
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
H2H: Bahia vs Internacional
15.03.26
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
0
1
W
08.11.25
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
2
2
D
22.10.25
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
28.05.25
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
2
1
L
03.04.25
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
1
D
13.04.24
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
2
1
L
19.10.23
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
28.05.23
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
2
0
L
26.09.21
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
2
0
L
13.06.21
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
0
1
L
27.12.20
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
2
L
06.09.20
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
2
2
D
26.10.19
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
2
3
L
13.06.19
H2H
Internacional
Bahia
3
1
L
Last matches: Bahia
09.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bahia
22.10.25
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
03.04.25
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
1
D
19.10.23
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
13.06.21
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
0
1
L
27.12.20
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
2
L
26.10.19
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
2
3
L
Last matches: Internacional
09.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Palmeiras
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Internacional
RB Bragantino
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Vitoria
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Coritiba
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Botafogo
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Corinthians
1
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Santos
2
1
W
11.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
25.02.26
Ser
Internacional
Remo
1
1
D
04.02.26
Ser
Internacional
Flamengo
1
1
D
H2H away: Internacional
22.10.25
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
L
03.04.25
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
1
D
19.10.23
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
L
13.06.21
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
0
1
W
27.12.20
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
1
2
W
26.10.19
H2H
Bahia
Internacional
2
3
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 44:20 24 51
W L D W L
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6
Bahia Home
24 9 10 5 34:28 6 37
W D D D D
7 23 10 5 8 28:23 5 35
W D L D D
8 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
9 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
10 24 8 8 8 26:24 2 32
L L W D D
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 24 8 5 11 23:35 -12 29
L W L L L
13 23 7 6 10 27:27 0 27
L D L D L
14 23 6 8 9 33:36 -3 26
D W L D L
15 23 6 7 10 24:31 -7 25
L L W D L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 23 6 6 11 26:36 -10 24
D L L W D
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 23 5 7 11 24:38 -14 22
L L D D L
20 23 2 8 13 24:46 -22 14
W D L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B