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BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.07.2026 22:30
Arena Fonte Nova
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Bahia
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Luciano Juba
Bahia
VAR
9'
Erick Pulga
Bahia
⚽
12'
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
⚽
34'
Román Gómez · Assist: David Duarte
Bahia
🔄
46'
Ênio ↔ Neto Pessoa
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
Bruno Matias ↔ Vinicius Balieiro
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
63'
Marcos Vinícius ↔ Everton
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
63'
Marcinho ↔ Rubens Tadeu
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
64'
José Guilherme
Bahia
🔄
67'
Willian José ↔ Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
67'
Ademir ↔ Kauê Furquim
Bahia
🔄
79'
Rodrigo Nestor ↔ Jean Lucas
Bahia
🔄
80'
Erick Pulga ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
81'
Camilo ↔ David Antunes
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
87'
David Duarte ↔ Marcos Victor
Bahia

Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 84.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
84.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 72.3%
Draw 4.9%
Chapecoense-sc Win 22.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.64
Chapecoense-sc1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
31 GF / 28 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
19 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.89
14
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
9
4.95
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 21 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 18 matches
Bahia Statistic Chapecoense-sc
9 Wins 2
5 Draws 6
7 Losses 10
31 Goals For 19
28 Goals Against 34
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.89
14 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 6
4.95 Shots On Goal 3.41
13.58 Total Shots 12.82
5.74 Corners 3.65
55.7% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bahia's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Chapecoense-sc in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chapecoense-sc having the stronger overall control. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 26 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chapecoense-sc.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia are currently 6 in the standings with 26 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 25:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without Leo Vieira, Luciano Juba, C. Olivera, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

With 9 points from 17 games and a place of 20, Chapecoense-sc still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 17:33, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through W. Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Neto Pessoa (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), W. Clar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Victor Caetano, Robert Conceicao, Mauricio Garcez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 4 times, Chapecoense-sc won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:14 from Bahia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Chapecoense-sc 4-4-1-1
Missing players: Bahia 2, Chapecoense-sc 6
H2H summary: Bahia wins 4, draws 5, Chapecoense-sc wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5
Bahia Home
30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B