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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
17.05.2026 12:30
AFAS Stadion
Referee: E. van de Graaf
AZ Alkmaar
Match Timeline
NAC Breda
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
S. Mijnans · Assist: T. Parrott
AZ Alkmaar
⚽
12'
M. Chavez Garcia · Assist: S. Mijnans
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
37'
T. Parrott ↔ M. Meerdink
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
54'
K. Sowah ↔ J. Candelaria
NAC Breda
🔄
55'
P. Reulen ↔ C. Brym
NAC Breda
🔄
55'
E. Mahmutovic ↔ J. Talvitie
NAC Breda
🔄
57'
M. Chavez Garcia ↔ D. Kasius
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
57'
I. Jensen ↔ Weslley Patati
AZ Alkmaar
🟨
59'
Rio Hillen
NAC Breda
⚽
61'
M. Soumano · Assist: C. Valerius
NAC Breda
🔄
68'
C. Leemans ↔ A. Ayew
NAC Breda
🔄
68'
B. Ghalidi ↔ L. Holtby
NAC Breda
🔄
70'
R. Daal ↔ A. Oufkir
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
70'
J. Clasie ↔ K. Boogaard
AZ Alkmaar
⚽
71'
M. Soumano · Assist: F. Jensen
NAC Breda
🟨
85'
Mexx Meerdink
AZ Alkmaar
⚽
89'
J. Talvitie · Assist: C. Valerius
NAC Breda
⚽
90'
M. Meerdink · Assist: Weslley Patati
AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AZ Alkmaar Win 100%
Draw 0%
NAC Breda Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
AZ Alkmaar1.75
NAC Breda1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
WWDLW
92 GF / 67 GA
NAC Breda NAC Breda
WLDWL
32 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
26
BTTS Yes
15
33
Over 2.5
16
5.92
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 51 matches
NAC Breda NAC Breda 33 matches
AZ Alkmaar Statistic NAC Breda
25 Wins 6
11 Draws 10
15 Losses 17
92 Goals For 32
67 Goals Against 55
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
26 BTTS Yes 15
41 Over 1.5 23
33 Over 2.5 16
22 Over 3.5 8
19 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 14
5.92 Shots On Goal 4
15.78 Total Shots 14.03
5.75 Corners 5.76
54% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by AZ Alkmaar's more proactive style and NAC Breda's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. AZ Alkmaar arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 51 points compared to NAC Breda in 17 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring NAC Breda.

AZ Alkmaar Analysis

From their first 33 matches, AZ Alkmaar have collected 51 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses, while the 55:48 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Parrott (17 goals), S. Mijnans (10 goals), S. Resink (6 goals), with creative support from Mees de Wit (6 assists), S. Mijnans (5 assists), S. Resink (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

NAC Breda Analysis

NAC Breda approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 28 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 32:55 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Boy Kemper (5 goals), Mohamed Nassoh (5 goals), Sydney van Hooijdonk (5 goals), with creative support from L. Holtby (5 assists), C. Brym (4 assists), Boy Kemper (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 9 times, NAC Breda won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:18 from AZ Alkmaar's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1 / NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
Missing players: AZ Alkmaar 1, NAC Breda 2
H2H summary: AZ Alkmaar wins 9, draws 2, NAC Breda wins 4

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie