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ITALY › SERIE B
09.10.2026 18:30
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Avellino vs Sampdoria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.1%
Odds 2.81
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.1%
2.81 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.07 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Avellino Win 70.1%
Draw 5.8%
Sampdoria Win 24.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avellino1.66
Sampdoria1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avellino Avellino
WWDLW
19 GF / 17 GA
Sampdoria Sampdoria
WLDWL
10 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
6
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
4
3.83
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avellino Avellino 10 matches
Sampdoria Sampdoria 10 matches
Avellino Statistic Sampdoria
4 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
4 Losses 5
19 Goals For 10
17 Goals Against 13
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
6 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
3.83 Shots On Goal 5.17
10 Total Shots 14.67
2.33 Corners 5.33
44.5% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Avellino's more proactive style and Sampdoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avellino expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Sampdoria in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sampdoria having the stronger overall control. Sampdoria arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sampdoria. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Avellino arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 7 points compared to Sampdoria in 17 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Avellino Analysis

So far, Avellino have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 7 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Russo (1 goals), M. Besaggio (1 goals), W. Cheddira (1 goals), with creative support from R. Russo (1 assists), M. Palumbo (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sampdoria Analysis

Sampdoria sit 17 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Insigne (2 goals), G. Tutino (1 goals), L. Henderson (1 goals), with creative support from S. Gartenmann (1 assists), Y. Verschaeren (1 assists), T. Lauritsen (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Avellino won 1 times, Sampdoria won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Avellino's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Avellino 3-5-2 / Sampdoria 4-3-3
H2H summary: Avellino wins 1, draws 0, Sampdoria wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 10:5 5 13
W D W W W
2 5 3 2 0 9:3 6 11
W D W D W
3 5 3 2 0 10:5 5 11
D W D W W
4 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W D L W W
5 5 3 1 1 7:4 3 10
W L W D W
6 5 2 1 2 5:6 -1 7
L W L D W
7 5 2 1 2 6:5 1 7
W W L D L
8 5 2 1 2 10:7 3 7
W L W D L
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
L D W W L
10 5 1 4 0 7:6 1 7
D D D W D
11 5 2 1 2 8:8 0 7
D L W W L
12 5 2 0 3 6:13 -7 6
L W L L W
13 5 2 0 3 4:6 -2 6
L L W L W
14 5 1 2 2 7:6 1 5
D W D L L
15 5 1 2 2 5:7 -2 5
D D W L L
16 5 1 2 2 7:10 -3 5
L D D L W
17 5 1 1 3 5:9 -4 4
W L L L D
18 5 1 0 4 5:9 -4 3
L W L L L
19 5 1 2 2 4:7 -3 1
D D L W L
20 5 0 1 4 2:6 -4 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation