BRAZIL › SERIE B
03.10.2026 14:00
Estádio da Ressacada
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil
Avai
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
3'
Reynaldo Cesar Moraes ↔ Jefferson Maciel
Avai
🟨
37'
Romildo
Avai
🟨
37'
Wenderson
Avai
🟨
38'
Luiz Otávio
Ceara
🟨
55'
Richardson
Ceara
🔄
60'
Léo Gamalho ↔ Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira
Avai
🔄
63'
Richardson ↔ Vinicius Zanocelo
Ceara
🔄
63'
Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares ↔ Vinícius
Ceara
🔄
70'
João Vitor ↔ Wallison
Avai
🔄
70'
Romildo ↔ Gaspar
Avai
🟨
71'
Felipe Vizeu
Avai
🔄
75'
Enzo Valentim Lodovico ↔ Rian Bonfim De Santana
Ceara
🔄
75'
Bryan Borges Mascarenhas ↔ Janderson Gabriel De Oliveira Martins
Ceara
🔄
87'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Renzo López
Ceara
🟨
90+2'
Daniel Penha
Avai
⚽
90+6'
Luiz Otávio · Assist: Renzo López
Ceara

Avai vs Ceara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 49.6%
Odds 2.44
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
49.6%
2.44 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.57 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.19 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Avai Win 49.6%
Draw 12.1%
Ceara Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avai1.12
Ceara1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avai Avai
WWDLW
30 GF / 41 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
33 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
15
BTTS Yes
17
14
Over 2.5
12
3.1
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avai Avai 30 matches
Ceara Ceara 30 matches
Avai Statistic Ceara
8 Wins 9
6 Draws 9
16 Losses 12
30 Goals For 33
41 Goals Against 39
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
15 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 10
3.1 Shots On Goal 4.2
10.8 Total Shots 13.6
3.63 Corners 5.6
46.2% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Ceara. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Avai have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Avai Analysis

With 30 points from 29 games and a place of 17, Avai still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 15 defeats with a 30:38 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Penha (5 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (5 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 15 with 35 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 31:37, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Melk (4 goals), Richard (4 goals), Lucas Lima (3 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Matheus Araújo (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Avai won 3 times, Ceara won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:17 from Avai's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Avai 4-2-3-1 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Avai wins 3, draws 5, Ceara wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
8 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
9 31 12 11 8 42:33 9 47
W L W L W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 31 12 9 10 43:32 11 45
W D W W L
12 31 12 6 13 30:39 -9 42
L L W W L
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 31 10 12 9 37:35 2 42
L D D W L
15
Ceara Away
31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17
Avai Home
31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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